Vladimir Putin Abandons His Erstwhile Allies
Julia Ioffe writes about the latest from Ukraine:
As the Ukrainian army chases separatists from the strongholds they've held for months, Moscow has barely said anything—despite its springtime rants about protecting Russians wherever they may be in the world....As I wrote back in May, now that he's sown chaos in Ukraine—but uneager to participate in someone else's civil war—President Vladimir Putin has thrown the rebels under the bus. In June, rebel leader Igor Strelkov said that "Putin betrayed us," and that betrayal has only deepened as Kiev launched its all-out offensive last week. Moscow, having started all this, has offered no help to the rebels.
The betrayal, it seems, may be even nastier than that. According to a Ukrainian security council spokesman, the Russians have sealed their border, shutting down three key crossings. Not only are they not letting men and materiel into Ukraine from Russia, but they're also blocking men and materiel from flowing in the opposite direction. That is, the very men that Moscow has riled up to the extent that they have taken up arms and are ready to die in order to get the region out of Ukraine and into Russia are not welcome to seek refuge in Russia. (Not even, it seems, the ones originally from Russia.) A group of 300 fleeing rebels reportedly even came under fire by the Russians as they tried to escape into Russia.
That Putin. He's quite the guy, isn't he? It appears that he eventually figured out that Ukraine wasn't going to fall neatly into his lap, and the cost of fomenting an all-out war there was simply too great. It turned out that Ukrainians themselves didn't support secession; Western powers were clearly willing to ramp up sanctions if things got too nasty; and the payoff for victory was too small even if he had succeeded. So now he's had to swallow a new, more pro-Western Ukraine—the very thing that started this whole affair—along with the prospect of renewed anti-Russian enmity from practically every country on his border.
But he got Crimea out of the deal. Maybe that made it worth it.