Kevin Drum

Benghazi Talking Points: "A Bureaucratic Knife Fight Pitting State vs. CIA"

| Fri May. 10, 2013 7:14 PM PDT

Earlier today, my basic take on the Benghazi talking points was that they exposed some "unseemly bureaucratic squabbling combined with the usual mushiness that you get when an interagency process produces a series of drafts of sensitive information for public consumption." Glenn Kessler has more on this:

This basically was a bureaucratic knife fight, pitting the State Department against the CIA.

....First, some important context: Although the ambassador was killed, the Benghazi “consulate” was not a consulate at all but basically a secret CIA operation which included an effort to round up shoulder-launched missiles. In fact, only seven of the 30 Americans evacuated from Benghazi had any connection to the State Department; the rest were affiliated with the CIA....So, from the State Department perspective, this was an attack on a CIA operation.

....The talking points were originally developed by the CIA....[and clearly imply] that State screwed up, even though internally, it was known that this was a CIA operation. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland especially objects to the reference to previous warnings, saying it “could be abused by members [of Congress] to beat up the State Department for not paying attention to warnings.”

....The final version of the talking points shows what happened: Just about everything was cut, leaving virtually nothing. The reference to “consulate” was also deleted, replaced by “diplomatic post.” From a bureaucratic perspective, it may have seemed like the best possible solution at the time. From a political perspective, it turned out to be a disaster.

I think this sounds almost certainly right: in a set of talking points that was supposed to be about what happened, CIA tried to add a paragraph that deflected blame for the debacle elsewhere. State objected since they considered this a CIA operation in the first place. Read the whole thing for Kessler's full explanation. And see David Corn here for his take on why today's news is bad for the White House even though the substance is thin: "This is not much of cover-up. There is no evidence the White House is hiding the truth about what occurred in Benghazi....But the White House has indeed been caught not telling the full story."

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Friday Cat Blogging - 10 May 2013

| Fri May. 10, 2013 11:55 AM PDT

As you can see, Domino is quite enjoying our 400 ppm world. She was rolling around in the sunshine yesterday while Marian pulled a few weeds, and then a dog walked by. This very much got her attention. She's OK with 400 ppm, but not so much with dogs.

Need more cats? Or, more accurately, do you need more cat? Click here for video proof that big cats like boxes every bit as much as your average housecat likes them.

Yesterday Was 400 ppm Day

| Fri May. 10, 2013 11:34 AM PDT

Well, we finally did it. We hit a new carbon dioxide milestone yesterday:

Scientific monitors reported that the gas had reached an average daily level that surpassed 400 parts per million — just an odometer moment in one sense, but also a sobering reminder that decades of efforts to bring human-produced emissions under control are faltering.

The best available evidence suggests the amount of the gas in the air has not been this high for at least three million years, before humans evolved, and scientists believe the rise portends large changes in the climate and the level of the sea.

This is from NOAA. The reading from the Scripps instruments for yesterday was 399.73 because they use local time, not Greenwich time. This gives them a slightly different 24-hour window that defines a "day."

But not to worry. They'll hit 400 soon too. And by next year, pretty much every day will be above 400. Congratulations, homo sapiens!

Chart of the Day: Student Loan Debt Crowding Out Mortgages

| Fri May. 10, 2013 10:37 AM PDT

A new report from the New York Fed describes a disturbing trend: student loan debt has increased so much that it's crowding out the ability of college graduates to buy homes. As the chart on the right shows, young workers with student loan debt—most of whom are college grads—used to take on mortgage debt at a higher rate than the rest of the population. This made sense, since they generally had higher incomes and better career prospects.

But that's been changing over the past few years. In 2012, for the first time, those without student loan debt actually took out mortgages at a higher rate than those with student loan debt. Annie Lowrey writes about this in the New York Times today:

“It is a new thing, a big social experiment that we’ve accidentally decided to engage in,” said Kevin Carey, the director of the Education Policy Program at the New America Foundation, a research group based in Washington. “Let’s send a whole class of people out into their professional lives with a negative net worth. Not starting at zero, but starting at a minus that is often measured in the tens of thousands of dollars. Those minus signs have psychological impact, I suspect. They might have a dollars-and-cents impact in what you can afford, too.”

Obviously there are other things going on here too. The housing crash may have had more of an impact on college grads, who decided to stay out of the market until it hit bottom. They also might have internalized the lessons of high debt levels better.

But spiraling loan debt probably plays a role too. This is one of those issues that continues to bedevil me, since I think there's a good case to be made that college is something individuals should pay for. It's going to reward them with lots of extra income, after all, so why should anyone else help subsidize it?

But as reasonable as that sounds, it's self-defeating in the end. Yeah, a college education is a boon for the person getting the education. But it's even more of a boon for society overall to have a big pool of college-educated workers. And it's a boon to have college-educated workers who don't spend the first decade of their working lives in a defensive crouch. This is an accidental experiment that's gone too far. The problem is, I'm not sure what we should do about it. Returning to the era in which state universities provided good quality, low-cost educations would sure be a start, though.

Finally, a Real Scandal for Conservatives to Chew On

| Fri May. 10, 2013 9:40 AM PDT
IRS audit

Hey, guess what? Conservatives now have a real scandal to tout! They've been complaining for a while that the IRS singled out tea party groups for audits, and it turns out they were right. Today, the IRS fessed up:

Organizations were singled out because they included the words "tea party" or "patriot" in their applications for tax-exempt status, said Lois Lerner, who heads the IRS division that oversees tax-exempt groups…"That was wrong. That was absolutely incorrect, it was insensitive and it was inappropriate. That's not how we go about selecting cases for further review," Lerner said at a conference sponsored by the American Bar Association.

"The IRS would like to apologize for that," she added.

Lerner said the practice was initiated by low-level workers in Cincinnati and was not motivated by political bias. After her talk, she told The AP that no high level IRS officials knew about the practice. She did not say when they found out. About 75 groups were inappropriately targeted. None had their tax-exempt status revoked, Lerner said.

In this case, conservatives will undoubtedly demand more information about how this happened, who was involved, and when top officials found out about it. And this time, they'll be right to.

ABC News Reveals Drafts of Benghazi Talking Points

| Fri May. 10, 2013 9:11 AM PDT

Do I have to write about the latest on Benghazi? I guess so. In for a penny, in for a pound.

ABC News now has a complete set of drafts of the infamous "talking points" that were prepared a few days following the Benghazi attacks. The drafts don't tell us much that we didn't already know, but here's a nickel summary:

  • From the very start, the talking points say that the attacks were "spontaneously inspired by the protests at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo" and then "evolved" into the assaults on the two compounds in Benghazi.
  • The first draft included references to "Islamic extremists with ties to al-Qa'ida." This was eventually sanded down to "extremists" after the State Department pointed out that they had been deliberately withholding this information because "we don’t want to prejudice the investigation." This is the same thing that David Petraeus told Congress last November.
  • The third draft included an ass-covering paragraph from the CIA making sure everyone knew they had produced "numerous pieces" on possible threats to Benghazi in the previous few months, with the obvious implication that the State Department had ignored them. Unsurprisingly, the State Department's spokesman, Victoria Nuland, objected to this gratuitous display of bureaucratic point scoring. It was removed in the final draft.

So....nothing much, really. The third bullet point is the only one that's even tenuously problematic, and it's not much more than a disclosure of internal backbiting. In any case, it was ultimately removed at a Deputies Committee meeting on Saturday morning that Nuland didn't attend.

I'm really, really trying to find anything scandalous here. I know I'm biased. But on a scale of 1 to 10, this is about a 1.5. It's a little bit of unseemly bureaucratic squabbling combined with the usual mushiness that you get when an interagency process produces a series of drafts of sensitive information for public consumption. But I'm sure it calls for impeachment hearings to begin anyway.

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Controlling Medicare Costs is Now Un-American

| Fri May. 10, 2013 8:09 AM PDT

Yesterday, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell announced that Republicans would not be naming any members to IPAB, the board empowered by Obamacare with making recommendations for ways to cut the cost of Medicare. Wesley Smith is really, really excited:

Way to go! The next step is to use Senate confirmation hearings to educate the American people about why the IPAB is un-American and shatters representative democracy. Pound it, pound it, pound it! Then, Republicans and commonsense Democrats in the Senate should refuse to confirm any nominated members to the board, using a filibuster if necessary. After that, defunding and eventual repeal. 

Really, this is amazing. It's now un-American for a government agency to be tasked with controlling costs in a government program. Is this because controlling costs is un-American? Because appointed commissions are un-American? Smith doesn't say. But apparently it's now conservative dogma that the only patriotic way Medicare costs can be reined in is by voucherizing the program.1 Nothing else is tolerable.

Of course, as a number of people have pointed out, this move doesn't prevent IPAB from working. If the Senate doesn't confirm anyone to the board, it just means that the HHS secretary has to make cost-cutting proposals on her own if Medicare grows faster than allowed. So what's the point? Pretty obviously, it's to make sure that if Medicare is cut in any way, Republicans can blame it solely and completely on Democrats.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is your fiscally responsible Republican Party. Keep all this in mind the next time you hear them yammering on about how critical entitlement reform is and how our spiraling deficits are imperiling the country.

1This is the gospel according to St. Paul. But it's worth noting (yet again) that even Paul Ryan has never fessed up about what he'd do if his voucher plan fails to meet his own growth control targets. He'd have to do something, and it's hard to see how he could avoid something un-American.

The Groundbreaking Isaac Newton Invention You've Never Heard Of

| Thu May. 9, 2013 10:51 PM PDT

I feel the need to write about something that's as far removed from Benghazi as humanly possible. How about Isaac Newton? As we all know, he invented calculus, the theory of gravity, and Newtonian mechanics, as well as conducting pioneering work in optics. But I'm reading a book called Newton and the Origin of Civilization right now,1 and I've learned to my surprise that he invented something else that was similarly groundbreaking. Read on for more.

Observational science was as important in the 17th century as it is today, and Newton has long had a reputation as a master of precise observation. But one way or another, observations of that era all depended on the human eye. Some were unaided, while others depended on instruments, but in the end, their accuracy was still no better than that of the observer, and scientists of the day—very much including Newton—were well aware that human observation was imperfect. The usual way of handling this was to make a series of observations and then pick out the one that seemed most accurate. Newton, however, invented a revolutionary new method in 1671 while he was measuring the differences in the diameters of the rings produced when a spherical lens is pressed against a plate of glass—the phenomenon later termed "Newton's rings":

Newton did something unusual, and even, as Alan Shapiro notes, "almost [we would say entirely] unprecedented in the 17th century": he averaged all of the differences....None of this reached print....Newton certainly avoided hinting in print that his law of arithmetical progression was adduced by anything other than the most skillful and precise of measurements.

....Newton's "mean"—the average—was the weapon with which he slew the invevitable dragons of sensual errors. It was a most paradoxical weapon for the times, because it amounted to a method by which error seems to be reduced by committing it repeatedly. No such method appears elsewhere at the time, and it would certainly have seemed odd, to say the least, to most practitioners of the period.

....We have no contemporary record of the reasoning by which he justified this unusual method....Yet Newton used averages early on; he used them frequently and, it seems, consistently....Why did Molyneux and Flamsteed, a decade or two later, do so as well?....Is there some evidence as to what underpinned the average, decades before statistical notions became widespread?

Apparently the answer to that last question is no. The authors produce a bit of evidence that Newton thought of the average as akin to measuring a center of gravity, but that's about it. It appears that Newton never explained himself, but just quietly went ahead with his use of  averages several decades before anyone else. It was the secret behind his famously accurate observations.

So how about that? Newton invented the now-standard method for reducing noise in measurements, and did it apparently by pure intuition, long before anyone (including Newton) suspected there was a rigorous mathematical basis for doing so. Also—and this is par for the course—he kept it a secret. So chalk up another amazing discovery for old Isaac.

1Actually, reading might be too strong a word. It's a long, dense monograph about Newton's obsession with ancient chronology, which joins alchemy, numerology, and Biblical exegesis among his somewhat less successful endeavors. So I'm sort of dipping into the book here and there, not really giving it a thorough read.

The Simple Reason Hedge Fund Billionaires Are Mad at Ben Bernanke

| Thu May. 9, 2013 1:30 PM PDT

Matt Yglesias informs me today that there is something called the Sohn Investment Conference, which, according to Reuters, "gets big name hedge fund managers to share their 'best ideas' with other wealthy investors." The hedge fundies, it turns out, are really unhappy with Ben Bernanke's monetary policy, and Matt provides a fairly philosophical explanation for why this is. I suppose he might be right, but I'm going to take a wild guess that the real reason is much simpler, summarized here by Reuters:

The Fed's easy money policy has helped boost riskier assets such as equities, with the S&P 500 up 14 percent this year. Both the S&P and Dow Jones Industrials have set a string of all-time highs.

In contrast, the average hedge fund is up only 4.4 percent.

So there you have it. In Ben Bernanke's America, hedge funds aren't doing so well. And guess what? Billionaire hedge fund managers aren't very happy about that. It's not complicated at all.

By the way, I love the scare quotes the Reuters reporters put around "best ideas." I'm guessing they're a little skeptical that these billionaires are truly sharing anything remotely approaching their best ideas. I would be too.

Quote of the Day #2: Paul Ryan Says Obama Never Calls to Chat

| Thu May. 9, 2013 11:28 AM PDT

From Rep. Paul Ryan, about a "secret beer" he had last month with White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough:

It was the first time I have had a candid conversation or a substantial conversation with a member of the Obama administration since they came into power.

This time I'll make exactly the opposite point that I made in the previous post. If this is true,1 it really is a little unsettling. Sure, we all know how Ryan feels, and I doubt that this meeting had even the slightest effect on anything. Still, these guys ought to get together and chat at least a little bit. It's just part of the job.

1I'm being cautious because "candid" and "substantial" seem to be doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Is this really the first real conversation Ryan has had with the White House? Or merely the first conversation of a particular kind that he's had? Hard to say.