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Family Research Council Straw Poll Results: Romney and Huckabee Tie for First Place

huckabee_romney_paul.jpg

This is big. Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's tie for first place here at the Family Research Council's Washington Briefing (aka the "Voters Value Summit") should mark his emergence. It's not clear he's a first tier candidate just yet, but he has the heart of the Christian evangelicals, and that's a great base if you're seeking the GOP nod. Here are the results in full:

Mitt Romney: 1,595 (27.6%)
Mike Huckabee: 1,565 (27.1%)
Ron Paul: 865 (15.0%)
Fred Thompson: 564 (9.8%)
Sam Brownback: 297 (5.1%)
Duncan Hunter: 140 (2.4%)
Tom Tancredo: 133 (2.3%)
Rudy Giuliani: 107 (1.85%)
John McCain: 81 (1.4%)

Total votes: 5,776

Other notes, some quite stunning:

- Mike Huckabee crushed all other contenders amongst those voters who submitted their votes on-site. (FRC members have been able to vote online since August.) A whopping 51.3 percent of on-site voters pulled the lever for Huckabee, which reflects the enthusiasm that greeted his speech earlier today. Romney only got 10.4 percent of on-site votes. Fred Thompson placed third, with 8.1 percent.

- Ron Paul's third place finish puts him ahead of frontrunners Thompson, Giuliani, and McCain, but it is a product of his strength on the internet. Paul's speech had a lot of content (on the economy, on foreign policy) that was out of style during a weekend filled almost exclusively with talk of abortion, family issues, and gay rights. He took just 25 votes from on-site voters; that's 2.6 percent. The rest of his votes came online.

- The poll also asked respondents who would be "least acceptable" as president. Hillary Clinton ran away with that one. She took 71.7 percent of all votes. Second, amazingly, was Rudy Giuliani, with 9.2 percent.

- John McCain and Rudy Giuliani couldn't break two percent, which is pretty pathetic. Giuliani has a reason: he's pro-choice and multiple evangelical leaders, including Tony Perkins, president of FRC, have said they refuse to vote for a pro-choice candidate. John McCain, on the other hand, has no excuse for becoming persona non grata. Miserable weekend for the Arizona senator.

You can find MoJoBlog's summary of Huckabee's speech here; the summary of Romney's is here. Sam Brownback would have been a strong contender in this straw poll had he not dropped out; my Brownback experience from yesterday is here.

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Posted by Jonathan Stein on 10/20/07 at 12:02 PM | E-mail | Print | Digg | de.licio.us | Reddit | Newsvine | Yahoo! MyWeb | StumbleUpon | Netscape | Google |

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Comments

Umm...it seems from reading your own posted stats that Huckabee lost by 30 votes. I'm not sure how that's being considered a 'tie'. If anything, that's a sad showing for him, considering he's preaching to his own political base, and he didn't even beat Mitt Romney, a mormon, for the votes of an organization full of evangelical christians. Your assessment smacks of spin, my friends.

Posted by: Tom on 10/20/07 at 1:18 PM

Tom,

Thanks for your comments. I assure you there's no spin here -- I have no preference for Huckabee or Romney. With Huckabee coming within one half of one percent, I'm comfortable calling the results a tie. (It's in recount range!)

Also, Huckabee's performance amongst voters who were actually at the Hilton Washington this weekend is undeniably impressive. As someone who was there all day yesterday and all day today, I can tell you that the buzz in the place was for Huckabee. Without question.

Given that the two campaigns have had several months to get their followers to vote online, it's not surprising that Romney did well. He has tons of money (reportedly, you had to pay to vote) and great organization. What he didn't have was the respect and admiration of the attendees of this weekend's event.

That's my two cents, anyway. Tom, is it possible you found us from our friends at MittReport.com?

Posted by: Jonathan Stein on 10/20/07 at 2:03 PM

Ron Paul is the man. He came in third. Once the people get to know Ron Paul, they will go for him. I give Huck credit for having self control and losing weight, that is also as good as the courage that Ron showed in standing up to the part.

Posted by: Big John on 10/20/07 at 2:20 PM

Another poll offers similarly results:

Zogby International released the results of an online survey today that show half of likely voters nationwide said they would never vote for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for president.

At the other end of the scale, only one candidate -- Democrat Bill Richardson -- faired better than Republican Mike Huckabee.

Click on my name -- "Bob" -- to see the complete survey results.

Posted by: Bob on 10/20/07 at 3:15 PM

Regarding Ron Paul's 3rd place finish, you qualify his strong showing by saying:

"...but it is a product of his strength on the internet."

Well, where do you think Mitt Romney's support came from? Romney bussed in supporters at the Iowa poll, and his campaign instructed supporters to pay the $1 fee so they could vote online in this poll.

I think that it is very irresponsible that Ron Paul's continued increase in popularity among people that are excited about a new political option is time and again attributed to an apparent 12 people online who have nothing better to do than skew pollsters results. What is it about Ron Paul that the mainstream media fears so much?

Posted by: Dean on 10/20/07 at 7:46 PM

Huckabee wants to pound IRS. He beat Big Bill.

If Senators C or O can beat anywone, its Big Cool Huck.

Power too. - 'junkyard dog yess, blue, no. - Che red Hugo.

Posted by: JunkyardBlueDogJB on 10/21/07 at 1:12 AM

"Bring 'em on!" , dead or alive [!!?!']. Am I the only pundit thinks like bottled lightning?, no.

in other words, real pundits (Car 54) where are you?

Would you do that? (travel far, learn new cultures, [the rest is history]?

Can't object to Cheif Execu[tionor]tiorve privlieged extrajudicial and summary war crime psychosis? Bush Sr.s Kamph. (why not 'The Mother of all Battles [Hussain] (of which he (Duh 1's book, April Glaspe notwithstanding demured (to march on to Buamgfhudkad, the better for odious comparison, but for gas station with a flag Kuwait ($1./hr + Dubiousi [brave] New World.

Speak your mind or wage endless war.

Say what? S-O-0mEThing.

Posted by: JunkyardBlueDogJB on 10/21/07 at 1:25 AM

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