Just for the record, here’s my crude eyeball guess about the growth of COVID-19 in America:
This suggests a total death toll through summer of about 60,000. I have a hard time believing this, but both my own projections and the expert modelers seem to have converged right around here. It would leave us with a final death toll of about 0.2 per thousand by the end of summer, which would be extraordinary. I admit that I can’t account for this considering the clear evidence that our response to COVID-19 was messy and chaotic. Maybe God really does watch over fools and children.
POSTSCRIPT: Different states and cities will peak at different times, so there will still be some areas that are growing even when the country reaches its overall peak. By the end of the week, however, pretty much every state should have peaked and should start declining.
