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The Pentagon released a new report on operations in Afghanistan yesterday, just a few weeks before their make-or-break offensive in Kandahar begins:

The new report offers a grim take on the likely difficulty of establishing lasting security, especially in southern Afghanistan, where the insurgency enjoys broad support. The conclusions raise the prospect that the insurgency in the south may never be completely vanquished, but instead must be contained to prevent it from threatening the government of President Hamid Karzai.

The report concludes that Afghan people support or are sympathetic to the insurgency in 92 of 121 districts identified by the U.S. military as key terrain for stabilizing the country. Popular support for Karzai’s government is strong in only 29 of those districts, it concludes.

….The report also notes that insurgents’ tactics are increasing in sophistication and the militants have also become more able to achieve broader strategic effects with successful attacks. The Taliban continue to use threats and targeted killings to intimidate the Afghan population.

At the same time, Taliban shadow governments, which can include courts and basic social services, have strengthened, undermining the authority of the Afghan government, according to the report.

Following the happy-talk optimism that marked most of the Bush years, Gen. Petraeus and the rest of the Pentagon have obviously decided that it’s better to manage expectations than to raise them. And managing them they are. After reading this, I’ll probably be happy if McChrystal emerges next fall and announces that he’s confident we’ll be out of Afghanistan by the time I qualify for Medicare.

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