How Dangerous is al-Qaeda in Afghanistan?

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Via Glenn Greenwald, here is Newsweek’s Michael Isikoff interviewing Michael Leiter, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, about the current threat from al-Qaeda in the AfPak region:

Isikoff: Let’s get a sense of what the overall threat picture looks like right now. [White House chief of staff] Rahm Emanuel said [recently] that about half of Al Qaeda has been eliminated in the last 18 months. How many people is that, and how many people are left in the other half?

Leiter: I think [CIA director] Leon Panetta said on Sunday, and I agree with him, that in Afghanistan, you have a certain number, a relatively small number, 50 to 100. I think we have in Pakistan a larger number.

How many?

Upwards — more than 300, I would say.

When I wrote about Panetta’s estimate a week ago, I cautioned that he had only talked about Afghanistan, not Pakistan. But now Leiter has given us an estimate for Pakistan, and it looks like there’s no more than 400-500 al-Qaeda members in the entire AfPak region. This is, obviously, not the only consideration for assessing the continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan, but it’s sure a mighty big one. (And the others don’t necessarily point in the direction of staying either. See Matt Yglesias here, for example.)

At this point there’s not a lot left to say about this that hasn’t been said a hundred times before, but just to restate the obvious, it’s getting harder every day to justify the continued loss of life and continued multi-billion dollar expense of a full-out counterinsurgency campaign there if it’s truly aimed at no more than a few hundred extremists living in caves. Maybe Joe Biden had this one right.

HERE ARE THE FACTS:

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ONE MORE QUICK THING:

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As we wrote over the summer, traffic has been down at Mother Jones and a lot of sites with many people thinking news is less important now that Donald Trump is no longer president. But if you're reading this, you're not one of those people, and we're hoping we can rally support from folks like you who really get why our reporting matters right now. And that's how it's always worked: For 45 years now, a relatively small group of readers (compared to everyone we reach) who pitch in from time to time has allowed Mother Jones to do the type of journalism the moment demands and keep it free for everyone else.

Please pitch in with a donation during our fall fundraising drive if you can. We can't afford to come up short, and there's still a long way to go by November 5.

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