Why Obama Won The Payroll Tax Fight

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Peter Nicholas of the LA Times writes that President Obama won the payroll tax battle because he followed a shiny new strategy for dealing with Congress:

President Obama’s success in getting congressional Republicans to renew a payroll tax cut flowed from a strategy the White House has employed since the summer: Bypass Congress and marshal the political power of middle-class voters fed up with Washington gridlock.

….The revised approach is rooted in lessons learned from a debacle over the summer. Obama spent weeks holed up in meetings with congressional leaders, trying to resolve a stalemate over raising the debt ceiling. In the end, Congress complied, but at a severe cost to the nation’s credit rating and Obama’s public standing. Obama could not persuade Republicans to ease deficits through a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts and was perceived as having surrendered to their demands.

….”If the short-term tactical approach was to distance himself from Congress and put him on the side of jobs for the middle class, you’d have to say that that tactical effort has stopped the bleeding and probably shored him up with his base, which was ready to jump ship after the debt ceiling fiasco,” said William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

I hope no one in the White House really believes this. Obama’s new strategy might have had a modest effect, but the real reason he won this battle is pretty simple: his bargaining position was way better. During the budget showdown and the debt ceiling showdown, Republicans had the upper hand because (a) deficit reduction was popular with the public and (b) they could credibly threaten to shut down the government. During this showdown, they had a weak position because (a) lower taxes are popular with the public and (b) their only credible threat was to refuse to pass the payroll tax extension, something that wouldn’t really cause the president much harm. It’s pretty easy to hold out against that.

Forget “strategy.” This showdown turned out differently because the fundamentals of the situation were different. This time, Obama held all the cards. Just about any strategy at all would have produced a better result than this year’s other showdowns.

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is the first thing despots go after. An unwavering commitment to it is probably what draws you to Mother Jones' journalism. And as we're seeing in the US and the world around, authoritarians seek to poison the discourse and the way we relate to each other because they can't stand people coming together around a shared sense of the truth—it's a huge threat to them.

Which is also a pretty great way to describe Mother Jones' mission: People coming together around the truth to hold power accountable.

And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

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