Maybe a Majority of Americans Really Are Conservative

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Today I defend Marco Rubio and Politifact. But Rubio more than Politifact.

Last weekend Rubio gave a speech at CPAC and said, “The majority of Americans are conservatives.” Politifact checked up on this:

The Gallup Poll has been regularly asking Americans about their political ideology since 1992, and they compile the results of many polls each year and release an annual report. For 2011, Gallup found that the largest group of Americans identify as conservative, at 40 percent. Another 35 percent identify as moderate, while 21 percent identify as liberal.

….Rubio said that the majority of Americans are conservative. A respected ongoing poll from Gallup shows that conservatives are the largest ideological group, but they don’t cross the 50 percent threshold. So we rate his statement Mostly True.

Liberals pounced, and with good reason. This is mind-bogglingly dumb. 40% of Americans identify as conservative, so it’s “mostly true” that a majority of Americans are conservative? Seriously?

But guess what? Gallup is not the only pollster in the world! Here’s a Politico Battleground Poll from a few months ago that forced people to choose whether they leaned left or right:

In this poll, 61% of the country identified as conservative. That’s a majority!

Now, this is a poll of “likely” voters. It forces a choice between liberal and conservative. And even though we all know that “independent” voters mostly lean left or right pretty reliably, I imagine this poll still understates the number of true centrists.

Nonetheless, it’s a poll. And Rubio could quite reasonably point to it as evidence that a majority of the country is conservative. Liberals, just as reasonably, could point to other polls suggesting that a majority of Americans support liberal goals regardless of what they call themselves. It’s kind of complicated!

Which is why Politifact probably shouldn’t have pretended to fact check this in the first place. And if they insisted, they should have pointed to multiple polls instead of pretending that a single Gallup poll was gospel. It’s a dog’s breakfast.

But Rubio is off the hook. All he needs is one good poll to justify his statement, and he’s got one.

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LET’S TALK ABOUT OPTIMISM FOR A CHANGE

Democracy and journalism are in crisis mode—and have been for a while. So how about doing something different?

Mother Jones did. We just merged with the Center for Investigative Reporting, bringing the radio show Reveal, the documentary film team CIR Studios, and Mother Jones together as one bigger, bolder investigative journalism nonprofit.

And this is the first time we’re asking you to support the new organization we’re building. In “Less Dreading, More Doing,” we lay it all out for you: why we merged, how we’re stronger together, why we’re optimistic about the work ahead, and why we need to raise the First $500,000 in online donations by June 22.

It won’t be easy. There are many exciting new things to share with you, but spoiler: Wiggle room in our budget is not among them. We can’t afford missing these goals. We need this to be a big one. Falling flat would be utterly devastating right now.

A First $500,000 donation of $500, $50, or $5 would mean the world to us—a signal that you believe in the power of independent investigative reporting like we do. And whether you can pitch in or not, we have a free Strengthen Journalism sticker for you so you can help us spread the word and make the most of this huge moment.

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