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Is the release of Mitt Romney’s secret fundraising video likely to affect the race much? Conventional journalistic wisdom says yes. Conventional political science wisdom says no. I don’t have any wisdom of my own, but here’s a single data point to toss into the pot. The chart below shows the Intrade trend over the past couple of weeks, and so far it appears that the video is having about the same effect as Romney’s flub after the Cairo attacks. The Cairo gaffe sent Obama’s odds of winning from 58% to 67% over the course of a week, and the secret video is on a similar track, boosting Obama from 67% to 69% in a couple of days. Take it for what it’s worth.
