Obama is Killing It on Intrade

Facts matter: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter. Support our nonprofit reporting. Subscribe to our print magazine.

Is the release of Mitt Romney’s secret fundraising video likely to affect the race much? Conventional journalistic wisdom says yes. Conventional political science wisdom says no. I don’t have any wisdom of my own, but here’s a single data point to toss into the pot. The chart below shows the Intrade trend over the past couple of weeks, and so far it appears that the video is having about the same effect as Romney’s flub after the Cairo attacks. The Cairo gaffe sent Obama’s odds of winning from 58% to 67% over the course of a week, and the secret video is on a similar track, boosting Obama from 67% to 69% in a couple of days. Take it for what it’s worth.

THE END...

of our fiscal year is Thursday, June 30, and we have a much larger fundraising gap than we can easily manage with only days left to go.

Right now is no time to come up short: If you value the hard-hitting, democracy-protecting, justice-advancing journalism you get from Mother Jones, please help us keep charging as hard as we possibly can with a much-needed and much-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

THE END...

of our fiscal year is Thursday, June 30, and we have a much larger fundraising gap than we can easily manage with only days left to go.

Right now is no time to come up short: If you value the hard-hitting, democracy-protecting, justice-advancing journalism you get from Mother Jones, please help us keep charging as hard as we possibly can with a much-needed and much-appreciated donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate