Chart of the Day: Federal Debt at the Start of Trump Era

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The Congressional Budget Office has published its latest forecast of deficits and debt over the next decade. Here it is:

As the CBO notes, this steady rise in the debt is pretty much inevitable given an aging population and a Republican Congress unwilling to properly fund our spending commitments. Still, I’m not a huge debt alarmist, and this projection doesn’t bother me a lot. It would be nice to see the national debt decline during economic expansions like our current one, though. After all, economic expansions don’t last forever, even with the galaxy’s best businessman in charge of the country.

Still, it’s worth putting this up as a baseline. This is the debt projection at the end of the Obama era. In 2020, after four years1 of total Republican rule, we can compare and see just what the projected debt looks like in the hands of folks who claim to be devoted to balanced budgets and low deficits. My guess is that it will be somewhere north of 120 percent of GDP.

Of course, I might be wrong. Maybe the economy will grow at 4 or 5 percent per year under GOP stewardship and the resulting boom will cause tax revenue to skyrocket and the debt to come down. Anything is possible, I suppose. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

1Probably.

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily bluster—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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