No, There’s No “Trump Effect” In the Stock Market

Donald Trump whines constantly that newspapers refuse to report how great the stock market is doing on his watch. Today, the Washington Post finally caved in, reporting on its front page about the Dow Jones’ “stunning rise to 22,000.” And Trump deserves the credit:

The markets’ most recent run-up does indeed have something to do with Trump’s win in November, several analysts said. Back then, some on Wall Street cheered the ascent of a businessman into the White House and his promises to cut taxes, invest in infrastructure and increase military spending. The Dow turned sharply up right after the election and has risen 23 percent since then.

I wouldn’t bother with this if not for the Trump nonsense, but once again, here’s an up-to-date chart of the Dow’s entire eight-year bull run:

Yes, there was a brief rally right after Trump’s election. But it was just the Dow catching up to its trendline, and it’s been pretty close to that trendline ever since. Unless the Dow really takes off for the rest of the year, there’s just no evidence of any kind of serious Trump effect.

Which is actually a little surprising. By all the evidence, Trump and the Republican Congress plan to be very, very friendly to big corporations. Their stock prices should be skyrocketing. But aside from the November bump, there’s not much going on.

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In "News Is Just Like Waste Management," we unpack what the coronavirus crisis has meant for journalism, including Mother Jones’, and how we can rise to the challenge. If you're able to, this is a critical moment to support our nonprofit journalism with a donation: We've scoured our budget and made the cuts we can without impairing our mission, and we hope to raise $400,000 from our community of online readers to help keep our big reporting projects going because this extraordinary pandemic-plus-election year is no time to pull back.

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