A couple of days ago the ISM manufacturing index dropped below 50 for the second month in a row, suggesting a weakening economy. The non-manufacturing index hasn’t gotten that bad yet, but it’s lost about eight points over the past year and is now hovering just barely above 50:
A level above 48.6 means the services sector is still expanding, but only barely. If it falls below 48.6, that means it’s contracting. As with other signals, this suggests that the economy isn’t plummeting, but it’s definitely weakening.
