Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: March 22 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through Sunday. If you squint, it looks like a couple of countries are flattening slightly compared to the Italian trendline, but it’s way too early to tell if this is for real or not.

I get asked a lot why I don’t just show the absolute number of deaths (or deaths per million) on the y-axis. The answer is simple: what matters is the growth rate, and that’s what I want everyone to focus on. The countermeasures we started taking last week—if they’re working—will start to show up as a flattening of the growth curve in another week or two. That flattening is what we’re aiming for.

Right now, for example, the growth rate for the United States is roughly 25 percent per day. That will get us up to 50,000 deaths in three weeks and a quarter of a million in four weeks, so we’d better hope that we start to flatten that curve sometime very soon.

Here’s how to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 17; total deaths are at 112x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 10.1 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is slightly below where Italy was on their Day 17.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

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Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

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Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

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Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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