COVID-19 Will Probably Cause Poverty to Decrease

Get your news from a source that’s not owned and controlled by oligarchs. Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily.

Jason DeParle reports on a study that says the COVID-19 pandemic will cause poverty in America to increase sharply:

If quarterly unemployment hits 30 percent — as the president of one Federal Reserve Bank predicts — 15.4 percent of Americans will fall into poverty for the year, the Columbia researchers found, even in the unlikely event the economy instantly recovers. That level of poverty would exceed the peak of the Great Recession and add nearly 10 million people to the ranks of the poor.

Wait. This doesn’t make sense. If you stay employed throughout the pandemic, then you won’t fall into poverty. If you’re laid off or furloughed, then you apply for unemployment benefits. Thanks to the coronavirus rescue bill, those benefits are higher than your normal pay for anyone with a low income. It’s quite possible, in fact, that poverty will decrease thanks to the CARES Act. So why does—

There are significant caveats. Most important, the model does not yet include the potentially large anti-poverty effect of the Cares Act, the emergency legislation last month that provides about $560 billion in direct relief to individuals and even greater sums to sustain businesses and jobs.

Oh for chrissake. What’s the point in writing something so wildly misleading? The CARES Act was passed more than two weeks ago. That’s plenty of time to incorporate it into models of poverty. Why waste time on alarmist nonsense based on a fantasy world that doesn’t exist?

I understand that state unemployment agencies are overwhelmed right now, which means that unemployment benefits are slow to get approved. That’s a legitimate problem. But eventually things will settle down, and when they do people are going to discover that in addition to their $1,200 checks, they’re also getting a substantial upward bump in pay while they’re unemployed. For some reason, though, the nation’s press corps is oddly reluctant to write about this. I don’t get it.

PLEASE—BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things it doesn’t like—which is most things that are true.

We’ll say it loud and clear: At Mother Jones, no one gets to tell us what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please do your part and help us reach our $150,000 membership goal by May 31.

payment methods

PLEASE—BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things it doesn’t like—which is most things that are true.

We’ll say it loud and clear: At Mother Jones, no one gets to tell us what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please do your part and help us reach our $150,000 membership goal by May 31.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate