If COVID-19 Cases Are Going Up, Why Is the Death Rate Going Down?

This chart shows the growth trend of COVID-19 cases vs. COVID-19 deaths:

Cases and deaths were following a roughly similar trend until mid June, when cases suddenly started to skyrocket while deaths continued to steadily decline. What’s going on?

Part of the answer, of course, is that deaths are a lagging indicator, and you don’t really expect them to increase until cases have been high for two or three weeks. It’s possible that the death rate will turn upward next week.

But there are a couple of other things that probably explain what’s going on. First, during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 a huge number of cases came in nursing homes, whose residents are by far the most vulnerable to the virus. We now know that nearly half of all COVID-19 deaths came in nursing homes, which eventually created a sort of herd immunity. Starting around June, there were fewer cases and far fewer deaths in nursing homes.

Second, when states started to reopen, it was young people who took advantage of this in the greatest numbers, while older people like me mostly tried to stay isolated. The kids tended not to wear masks or pay a lot of attention to social distancing measures, and this caused the number of cases to skyrocket. However, young people are also the least likely to die from the virus, so the large number of cases among the young haven’t translated into a large number of deaths.

Both of these together—more cases among young people and fewer cases in nursing homes—have combined to change the age profile of the coronavirus. As that age profile goes down, there are fewer deaths even as cases rise, simply because younger people are much less likely to die from COVID-19 than older people.

This probably explains some of the mystery. But don’t get complacent: Next week might very well see a turnaround in the death rate. A lower age profile can improve things, but not forever. At some point, reckless behavior will catch up to us.

WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

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That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

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Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

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And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

payment methods

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