COVID-19 Deaths May Be About to Rise

Here’s a chart showing COVID-19 case growth since June 1 along with COVID-19 mortality growth lagged by three weeks:

As you can see, there is still a correlation: when cases rise, deaths rise three weeks later, although by a smaller amount. There was a brief dip in case growth in mid-September that didn’t show up in a reduced death rate three weeks later, but perhaps it was too small and short-lived to be meaningful.

The bad news here is that if you ignore the blips, cases started a steady rise on September 29. Today is three weeks later. Are we about to see a steady rise in the death rate too?

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It’s really that simple. But if you’d like to read a bit more, our membership lead, Brian Hiatt, has a post for you highlighting some of our newsroom's impressive, impactful work of late—including two big investigations in just one day and covering voting rights the way it needs to be done—that we hope you’ll agree is worth supporting.

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