Will Saddam Help the GOP Get an Election Bump?

Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.


Over at the Nation, the ever-prolific Tom Engelhardt speculates about what he thinks could be the GOP’s November Surprise: the November 5 sentencing of Saddam Hussein. Assuming that Saddam is guaranteed to get the death penalty, the White House could get itself a nice last-minute blip of “progress” to sell to voters. Clearly, the timing will work well for Bush & Co. Whether that’s a happy coincdence is subject to debate. But as law prof and blogger Scott Horton tells Engelhardt,

“When you look at polling figures,” Horton said,” there have been three significant spike points. One was the date on which Saddam was captured. The second was the purple fingers election. The third was Zarqawi being killed. Based on those three, it’s easy to project that they will get a mild bump out of this….This is not coincidence…. Nothing in Iraq that’s set up this far in advance is coincidental.”

But would this “mild bump” be enough to revive Republicans’ fortunes at the polls? It’s not like the Democrats won’t cheer Saddam’s descent to death row, so the Republicans would have to work fast to turn this into a partisan issue (not that they won’t try their darndest). And in the eyes of many Americans, Saddam’s hardly the WMD-toting bogeyman he was three years ago; he’s no Osama, no matter how much the “Saddam was behind 9/11” crowd wishes he was. With support for the war at an all-time low, it’s hard for me to see how this verdict will change many war-weary minds, much less energize a disheartened GOP base.

MOTHER JONES NEEDS YOUR HELP

Straight to the point: Donations have been concerningly slow for our hugely important First $500,000 fundraising campaign. We urgently need your help, and a lot of help, over the next few weeks so we can pay for the one-of-a-kind journalism you get from us.

Learn more in “Less Dreading, More Doing,” where we lay out this wild moment and how we can keep charging hard for you. And please help if you can: $5, $50, or $500—every gift from every person truly matters right now.

payment methods

MOTHER JONES NEEDS YOUR HELP

Straight to the point: Donations have been concerningly slow for our hugely important First $500,000 fundraising campaign. We urgently need your help, and a lot of help, over the next few weeks so we can pay for the one-of-a-kind journalism you get from us.

Learn more in “Less Dreading, More Doing,” where we lay out this wild moment and how we can keep charging hard for you. And please help if you can: $5, $50, or $500—every gift from every person truly matters right now.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate