• Trump to Base: I Won

    Here is Donald Trump’s response to yesterday’s devastating testimony by former FBI director James Comey:

    Ezra Klein says that Trump isn’t even trying to offer a coherent argument here:

    It would be a mistake to think of what Trump is doing here as persuasion. He is not trying to offer a more consistent or credible account of events than Comey did. He is not marshaling evidence that disproves Comey’s testimony, or offering alternative explanations for the interactions Comey recorded.

    No fair-minded person would look at Comey’s testimony and the White House’s pushback and see anything of value in the latter. Trump isn’t crafting believable lies or arguing with how Comey understood events or even trying to convince observers of an alternative timeline. He’s bullshitting.

    I disagree. Not about Trump being a bullshitter, of course. He is. But as always, keep his audience in mind. Trump’s tweets aren’t aimed at me or Ezra or the editors of the New York Times. They’re aimed at his base supporters, many of whom will see little about the Comey hearing other than what Trump says.

    For that audience, this is an extremely coherent, consistent, and persuasive statement. They didn’t watch the hearing, and they don’t read Vox or Mother Jones. This is it. And given the opportunity to have first crack at their headspace, Trump doesn’t bother spinning or exaggerating. He just flat-out says he was totally vindicated, and he says it as if this were common knowledge.

    And why not? He doesn’t care what anyone else thinks. If his base will buy it, there’s no reason to be subtle.

  • It’s Official: Conservatives Lose Their Majority in UK Election

    It’s official: Theresa May and the Conservative Party have lost their majority in Parliament. May called a snap election six weeks ago hoping to give herself a bigger mandate to negotiate Brexit, and just the opposite happened. The Tories lost about a dozen seats and will end up with fewer than 320 by the time every constituency has reported in. They need 326 for a majority. The Guardian’s numbers are below.

    So what happened? Was it dementia-gate? Was Jeremy Corbyn just a terrific campaigner? Did May lose higher income voters? Did young people turn out for Corbyn in huge numbers? Did May turn off voters by refusing to debate? Or was it a more general problem of the country having second thoughts about Brexit?

    Yes. It was all those things. I think. But what do I know about British politics? In any case, the whole populist tidal wave thing sure seems to be petering out. Donald Trump is sucking wind, and turning out to be an old-fashioned Republican plutocrat anyway. Emmanuel Macron won handily in France. And now the Brexit wing of British politics has taken a shellacking.

    There’s chatter that Theresa May will resign tomorrow and set up yet another Conservative leadership fight. Didn’t we just have one of those? Either way, it seems likely there will be another election later this year.

    Maybe. Stay tuned.

  • Would an Airline Laptop Ban Increase the Risk of Flying?

    From the Los Angeles Times:

    As the U.S. government considers expanding a ban on laptop computers and other electronic devices from the cabins of commercial flights, federal data show that storing such devices in the cargo area of a plane could increase the risk of fires.

    Indeed. Here’s FAA data on known fires from lithium-ion batteries on passenger flights:

    Battery fires have skyrocketed since 2015. When they’re in the passenger compartment, they can usually be extinguished without too much trouble. But if they’re in the cargo hold, there’s a greater risk of a battery explosion causing major damage—and possible loss of life—before it’s put out.

    Ironically, this is an example of something I was complaining about yesterday: comparing deaths from terrorism with deaths from accidents like bathtub falls. In this case, though, it’s a live question. What are the odds of a plane going down because a terrorist has smuggled an explosive onto a plane inside a laptop computer? And what are the odds of a plane going down because of a laptop battery fire in a cargo hold?

    I assume the chances of the latter are small, since it’s never happened. Then again, the chances of the former are pretty minuscule too. Has anyone tried to do a hazard analysis of this? Are there better ways of making sure electronic devices don’t contain explosives? And how do you factor in the loss of convenience from banning laptops? Those are good questions. Anyone have any answers?

  • Lunchtime Photo

    A couple of months ago, after vast effort, I posted some spectacular pictures of one of our backyard hummingbirds. I wanted to know what kind of hummingbird it was, and figured it should be no problem identifying it. But our bird commenters failed me. “We need to see it from behind,” they wailed. Sheesh.

    But today is our lucky day! I saw Hopper become intently interested in something, and when I followed her gaze there was a hummingbird facing away from me. I had time for one quick photo, and this is it. So I’m giving the bird people a second chance. I don’t actually know if this is the same variety of hummingbird as last time, but it probably is, don’t you think? And now we have both front and back photos. So what is this little guy?

    ANSWER: Juvenile male Anna’s hummingbird. Unless someone decides to argue about this.

  • Here Are the 6 Biggest Moments of the Comey Hearing

    I would count these as the six biggest highlights of James Comey’s testimony before Congress today:

    1. Leaked memo. Comey testified that he leaked his own memos in hopes of prompting the appointment of a special prosecutor.
    2. Jeff Sessions. Comey testified that in addition to Jeff Sessions’ meetings with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak during the 2016 campaign, “We were also aware of facts I can’t discuss in an open setting that would make his continued involvement in a Russia investigation problematic.”
    3. FBI in chaos. Regarding President Trump’s claim that the FBI was in chaos and agents had lost confidence in Comey, “Those were lies, plain and simple.”
    4. Loyalty. Comey testified that Trump told him, “I need loyalty. I expect loyalty.” After the hearing, Trump’s lawyer flatly denied this. In essence, he accused Comey of perjury.
    5. Direction. Regarding Trump’s comment about the Flynn-Russia investigation (“I hope you can let this go”) Comey testified that “I took it as direction.”
    6. Russia. Comey testified that Trump never once showed any interest in the FBI’s investigation of Russia’s interference with the 2016 election.

    More generally, I’d also say that one of the highlights of the hearing was the almost unanimous Republican desire to carry water for Trump and play down the seriousness of what happened. This got almost comical when GOP senators abandoned the subject of the hearing entirely and tried to turn the topic to Hillary Clinton’s email server. I’m only surprised that none of them tried to bring up Benghazi.

  • John McCain Is…Very Strange Today

    It’s John McCain’s turn to question Comey, and he’s babbling on about how confused he is. How could Comey have finished up the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s email server last year, and yet the investigation of Russia’s interference in the election is ongoing. HOW CAN THAT BE? IT’S A DOUBLE STANDARD!!!

    I have no idea what McCain is trying to say here. This is a bizarre line of questioning. He’s genuinely asking how it’s possible that an investigation of Clinton could be concluded while an investigation of Trump on a different subject hasn’t been concluded. Then he drooped a bit and referred a couple of times to “President Comey” before Comey stepped in and reminded McCain that he was right there. When McCain’s time was up, he puffed up his cheeks and shook his head as though he had uncovered something truly damning that no one else understood.

    Does McCain have a cold and is loopy from a little too much Nyquil? Or what?

  • All the President’s Lies

    Steve Benen rounds up President Trump’s lies:

    Though Comey’s statement didn’t highlight this, the information the former FBI director documented suggests the president didn’t just obstruct justice — he also brazenly lied about it to the American public.

    1. Trump was asked on Fox News last month whether he ever asked Comey for his loyalty. Trump responded, “No, I didn’t.” We now have reason to believe this was a lie.

    2. Trump was asked at a White House press conference last month, “Did you at any time urge former FBI Director James Comey in any way, shape, or form to close or to back down the investigation into Michael Flynn?” Trump replied, “No. No. Next question.” We now have reason to believe this was a lie, too.

    3. Trump was asked by NBC News’ Lester Holt about the private dinner he had with Comey, and the president said the FBI director “asked for the dinner.” We now have reason to believe this was also a lie.

    In other words, before the hearing even begins, and senators help explore Comey’s account in more detail, the former FBI director has documented specific instances about the president of the United States lying to the public about his alleged misconduct.

    That’s three more to add to the pile.