• Three Random Thoughts

    I have a few little things that have been bugging me, but none of them is really worth a whole post on its own. So I’m just going to mention them all briefly in a little potpourri post. Here they are.


    I keep running into claims that the middle class is dead, killed off by income losses since the Great Recession. But it ain’t so. Here is median income since the peak year before the recession:

    That’s an increase of 10 percent. Here is the CBO’s estimate of middle-class income vs. top income through 2017:

    Since 2007, income of the middle 60 percent has gone up 4.3 percent, while income of the top 20 percent has gone up only 2.7 percent.

    God knows that income inequality has increased generally since the Reagan era. I’ve written about this often and at length (here, for example). Still, that doesn’t mean that the middle class has died or that the affluent have outpaced the middle class during every single time span. In the case of the Great Recession, the well-off suffered more than the middle class and then made up more than the middle class. But when you net it out, the middle class did a little bit better than the rich.

    (This doesn’t tell us anything about the top 1 percent or the top 0.1 percent. But it does tell us a lot about the middle class.)


    Whenever progressives talk about Obamacare, the conversation usually turns immediately to a public option. In other words, progressives want people to be able to buy into Medicare at a set price.

    But why? If you ask ordinary people what their biggest complaint is with Obamacare, it isn’t about the lack of a Medicare option. It’s about the fact that it costs too damn much. If you’re poor, you qualify for Medicaid. If you’re a little better off, the federal subsidy makes Obamacare free or close to it. But once you start moving into the middle class, the subsidies decrease pretty rapidly, and by the time you hit the middle-middle class they’re mostly gone. And since Obamacare raised the price of private insurance, this means that many middle-class families end up paying a lot of money for insurance with big deductibles.

    So let’s forget about the public option for now. The real problem with Obamacare is the usual one with Democratic initiatives: it just isn’t funded well enough. In round numbers, we spend about $100 billion per year on Obamacare subsidies, and that should be doubled. If we did that, generous subsidies could be offered all the way into the high end of the middle class, and it could subsidize decent gold and platinum policies with modest deductibles and modest copays. “Double the subsidies!” should be the rallying cry of anyone who wants to improve Obamacare.


    A few days ago, the new, more conservative Supreme Court ruled that New York’s COVID-19 regulations were an unconstitutional intrusion on the free exercise of religion. The most common reaction on the left was “Here we go. This is just the start.”

    And it might be. But in this case, the conservative justices said only that religious gatherings should be considered “essential” and therefore regulated in the same way as other essential activities. In the face of a pandemic I doubt that I would second guess local officials like this, but the ruling isn’t really all that bad. I suspect that lots of liberals simply can’t grasp the notion of a religious assembly being considered “essential,” while plenty of conservatives can. Whichever side you come down on, just how sure are you that the other side is being ridiculous?

  • Lunchtime Photo

    This pair of photos amuses me because it reminds me of the way Hilbert and Hopper play with each other. In the top photo, the Hilbertish tiger comes over and bites the Hopperish tiger for no reason. The Hopperish tiger is obviously not amused.

    In the bottom photo, the Hilbertish tiger immediately makes amends by licking the Hopperish tiger. But check out her expression. It’s something like How long do I have to put up with this idiot? I just want to take a nap.

    October 9, 2020 — San Diego Zoo, San Diego, California
  • The OMB Is More Important Than You Think

    Tom Williams/Congressional Quarterly/Newscom via ZUMA

    The Office of Management and Budget is one of those agencies that’s little known to the public but surprisingly important in real life. In addition to managing the budget process, it’s also the agency that does things like regulatory review and cost-benefit analysis, which can make all the difference between environmental regulations succeeding or failing. Progressives were concerned that Joe Biden might nominate Bruce Reed, a noted deficit hawk, to run OMB, but this turned out to be a head fake. Instead he has nominated Neera Tanden.

    In theory there should have been no need to play games over this. Tanden is a longtime Clinton ally who has run the Center for American Progress for the past couple of decades, and her politics are pretty progressive. But there’s more to it. She’s also one of us. And by us I mean ordinary folks who get into periodic Twitter feuds and make a few enemies along the way. Personally I consider this great, since it suggests a real human being beneath the political exterior, but then again, I suppose I might feel differently if any of those feuds had been with me.

    I’ve avoided that fate—no surprise since I seem to agree with her about nearly everything—but one of Tanden’s most visible feuds has been with Bernie Sanders, which naturally means she’s viewed as less than totally progressive despite her policy preferences. Thus the fake with Bruce Reed. Regardless of how you come out in the Tanden-Sanders fight, even progressives are breathing a sigh of relief that at least Biden didn’t choose Reed.

    So that’s that. Except for one thing: Tanden has also been mean toward Republicans! Hard to believe, I know. But Sen. John Cornyn, who apparently has forgotten what his party routinely says about Democrats, has declared this a terrible affront against civility and says that Tanden will never be confirmed by the Senate. We’ll see. If Republicans refuse to confirm anyone who’s ever been critical of Republicans, we’re going to have a very long battle to confirm Biden’s cabinet.

  • Please Stop Looking at Exit Polls

    Our editor-in-chief has a gripe:


    Seriously, people, just don’t do this. The polling this year was unreliable and there’s every reason to think the exit polls are unreliable too. But analysts are gonna analyze, so we get a lot of opening sentences like this:

    Take all this with a grain of salt, but….

    No. Just stop there. I know it’s frustrating for numbers-oriented folks to have no reliable numbers to analyze the election with, but right now we don’t. And this is doubly true if you’re comparing 2020 to 2016, which had some reliability issues of its own. Like it or not, this year’s exits just aren’t good enough except at the broadest possible level (for example, shifts of six or seven points or more, which will probably hold up even if the precise magnitude of the shift changes when we get better numbers).

    I myself have taken an even more extreme tack: I haven’t even looked at the 2020 exit polls. Even if I swear to myself that I’m just curious and I won’t let them influence me, they will. I’d rather have no opinion than one based on bad data.