The GOP Choice: Tea Parties or Independents?

Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.

At the risk of embarrassing myself badly if someone points out an obvious mistake, I’ve stitched together an interesting pair of charts for you to look at tonight. But first some background. As you may know, the latest Gallup generic poll shows a sudden surge of support for Democrats. Why? Gallup suggests it might be related to passage of the financial reform bill, but I’m skeptical of that. Democrats have gone from 2 percentage points down to 6 percentage points up in only two weeks, by far their biggest jump in the past four months. Could a complex and barely understood regulatory bill really have caused that?

Maybe, but here’s another possibility. It turns out that the Democratic surge is largely due to a sudden jump in support from independents. So what caused that? Well, I was struck by an unusual correspondence between two of Gallup’s charts. It turns out that whenever enthusiasm goes up among registered Republicans, preference for Republicans goes down among independents. The pasted-together chart below — it’s a little messy I’m afraid — shows five cases of a jump in Republican enthusiasm (top chart) along with the corresponding drop in Republican support among independents (bottom chart). It’s not a perfect correlation, but it’s a pretty good one.

Anyway. Here’s my guess: every time Republicans do something that gets the tea party base excited, it simultaneously turns off independents. I’m not quite sure what caused the latest jump (NBPP fever? tax cuts pay for themselves? unemployment compensation obstructionism?), but apparently it was something.

So this is the GOP’s big problem for November: they need to motivate their base, but their base is so stone crazy that the only way to pander to them is with tactics so outrageous that non-crazies start to turn away. So far this hasn’t hurt them too badly because the independents tend to come back until a fresh provocation hits the airwaves a few weeks later, but eventually this might catch up to them. There’s obviously no rigorous statistics involved here, just sort of a gut feel. Take it for what it’s worth.

GREAT JOURNALISM, SLOW FUNDRAISING

Our team has been on fire lately—publishing sweeping, one-of-a-kind investigations, ambitious, groundbreaking projects, and even releasing “the holy shit documentary of the year.” And that’s on top of protecting free and fair elections and standing up to bullies and BS when others in the media don’t.

Yet, we just came up pretty short on our first big fundraising campaign since Mother Jones and the Center for Investigative Reporting joined forces.

So, two things:

1) If you value the journalism we do but haven’t pitched in over the last few months, please consider doing so now—we urgently need a lot of help to make up for lost ground.

2) If you’re not ready to donate but you’re interested enough in our work to be reading this, please consider signing up for our free Mother Jones Daily newsletter to get to know us and our reporting better. Maybe once you do, you’ll see it’s something worth supporting.

payment methods

GREAT JOURNALISM, SLOW FUNDRAISING

Our team has been on fire lately—publishing sweeping, one-of-a-kind investigations, ambitious, groundbreaking projects, and even releasing “the holy shit documentary of the year.” And that’s on top of protecting free and fair elections and standing up to bullies and BS when others in the media don’t.

Yet, we just came up pretty short on our first big fundraising campaign since Mother Jones and the Center for Investigative Reporting joined forces.

So, two things:

1) If you value the journalism we do but haven’t pitched in over the last few months, please consider doing so now—we urgently need a lot of help to make up for lost ground.

2) If you’re not ready to donate but you’re interested enough in our work to be reading this, please consider signing up for our free Mother Jones Daily newsletter to get to know us and our reporting better. Maybe once you do, you’ll see it’s something worth supporting.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate