Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.

The campaignerati like to say that states are the only things that matters, so you should ignore national polling. That’s a little bit right but mostly wrong. As the nation moves, so do the states, which means that national polls mean a lot even when the individual contests are fought at the state level.

That said, the latest polls show Romney finally making a serious surge at the national level. As the RCP summary below shows, the three national polls taken after the New Hampshire primary show Romney with 34%, 37%, and 40% of the vote. That means he’s finally cracked that 25% barrier that seemed to be his ceiling for so long. For good or ill, he’ll be the GOP nominee unless he somehow contrives to completely crash and burn in South Carolina. It’s all over but the shouting.

UPDATE: You want an alternative story just to keep things interesting? Fine. Perry is already toast and Ron Paul doesn’t really matter. If Santorum does really well in South Carolina and Gingrich decides to drop out, leaving it a clear two-person race, I could see just a sliver of hope for Santorum. But this is the best case I can think of, and even at that it’s just a sliver. At this point, Romney would have to screw up pretty spectacularly to lose.

GREAT JOURNALISM, SLOW FUNDRAISING

Our team has been on fire lately—publishing sweeping, one-of-a-kind investigations, ambitious, groundbreaking projects, and even releasing “the holy shit documentary of the year.” And that’s on top of protecting free and fair elections and standing up to bullies and BS when others in the media don’t.

Yet, we just came up pretty short on our first big fundraising campaign since Mother Jones and the Center for Investigative Reporting joined forces.

So, two things:

1) If you value the journalism we do but haven’t pitched in over the last few months, please consider doing so now—we urgently need a lot of help to make up for lost ground.

2) If you’re not ready to donate but you’re interested enough in our work to be reading this, please consider signing up for our free Mother Jones Daily newsletter to get to know us and our reporting better. Maybe once you do, you’ll see it’s something worth supporting.

payment methods

GREAT JOURNALISM, SLOW FUNDRAISING

Our team has been on fire lately—publishing sweeping, one-of-a-kind investigations, ambitious, groundbreaking projects, and even releasing “the holy shit documentary of the year.” And that’s on top of protecting free and fair elections and standing up to bullies and BS when others in the media don’t.

Yet, we just came up pretty short on our first big fundraising campaign since Mother Jones and the Center for Investigative Reporting joined forces.

So, two things:

1) If you value the journalism we do but haven’t pitched in over the last few months, please consider doing so now—we urgently need a lot of help to make up for lost ground.

2) If you’re not ready to donate but you’re interested enough in our work to be reading this, please consider signing up for our free Mother Jones Daily newsletter to get to know us and our reporting better. Maybe once you do, you’ll see it’s something worth supporting.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate