The Economy Sure Looks Headed for a Fall

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It’s not just e-commerce that’s partying like it’s 1999. The stock market is doing it too:

Those looking for reason to worry don’t have to search far. There’s a potential war with North Korea and ongoing drama in Washington D.C. But stepping aside from politics, the market has tended to drop when just about everyone thinks the good times will never end. Some people think we’re hitting “peak giddiness” now. Consider these stats:

63 percent of Americans believe the stock market will be higher a year from now…This is the highest level ever recorded by the survey…60 percent of market experts are bullish and only 15 percent are bearish…The P/E ratio, a widely watched gauge of how expensive the market is, has topped 21 for the Dow…It was 20 heading into the 1987 crash.

Venture capital looks giddy. The stock market looks giddy. Housing prices look giddy. I’m cautious by nature, so maybe it’s best to ignore me. And on the positive side, we don’t have a huge debt bubble right now that could turn a recession into a great recession. But even an ordinary recession would be painful. Color me one of the worriers.

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In "News Is Just Like Waste Management," we unpack what the coronavirus crisis has meant for journalism, including Mother Jones’, and how we can rise to the challenge. If you're able to, this is a critical moment to support our nonprofit journalism with a donation: We've scoured our budget and made the cuts we can without impairing our mission, and we hope to raise $400,000 from our community of online readers to help keep our big reporting projects going because this extraordinary pandemic-plus-election year is no time to pull back.

THE BIG PICTURE

You expect the big picture, and it's our job at Mother Jones to give it to you. And right now, so many of the troubles we face are the making not of a virus, but of the quest for profit, political or economic (and not just from the man in the White House who could have offered leadership and comfort but instead gave us bleach).

In "News Is Just Like Waste Management," we unpack what the coronavirus crisis has meant for journalism, including Mother Jones’, and how we can rise to the challenge. If you're able to, this is a critical moment to support our nonprofit journalism with a donation: We've scoured our budget and made the cuts we can without impairing our mission, and we hope to raise $400,000 from our community of online readers to help keep our big reporting projects going because this extraordinary pandemic-plus-election year is no time to pull back.

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