The Economy Sure Looks Headed for a Fall

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It’s not just e-commerce that’s partying like it’s 1999. The stock market is doing it too:

Those looking for reason to worry don’t have to search far. There’s a potential war with North Korea and ongoing drama in Washington D.C. But stepping aside from politics, the market has tended to drop when just about everyone thinks the good times will never end. Some people think we’re hitting “peak giddiness” now. Consider these stats:

63 percent of Americans believe the stock market will be higher a year from now…This is the highest level ever recorded by the survey…60 percent of market experts are bullish and only 15 percent are bearish…The P/E ratio, a widely watched gauge of how expensive the market is, has topped 21 for the Dow…It was 20 heading into the 1987 crash.

Venture capital looks giddy. The stock market looks giddy. Housing prices look giddy. I’m cautious by nature, so maybe it’s best to ignore me. And on the positive side, we don’t have a huge debt bubble right now that could turn a recession into a great recession. But even an ordinary recession would be painful. Color me one of the worriers.

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BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things they don’t like—which is most things that are true.

No one gets to tell Mother Jones what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

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