The Republican Tax Plan Is a Disaster for Families With Children

After correcting an error in their model, the Tax Policy Center has re-released their analysis of the Republican tax plan. The basic numbers are no surprise.:

The biggest cuts go to the rich, and this lopsidedness gets even worse ten years down the road. Here’s the number of households who will see their taxes increase:

This is pretty similar to the estimates from ITEP that I showed you on Monday. And here’s an estimate from a different source on the effect of the Republican tax plan solely on families with children:

Keep in mind that the Republican plan has already changed to the tune of about $100 billion, and it’s likely to change more. So these estimates are already out of date. However, I doubt that the changes will dramatically change these results.

It’s a little hard to understand how Republicans think they’re going to sell this. They’re already in trouble with their base over things like ending the adoption credit and killing off the deduction for state and local taxes in blue states:

There’s a lot of families with kids who are going to see a tax hike, and that’s marketing gold for Democrats. It’s pretty easy to send mailers just to families with children, and the disclosure that these figures are for 2027 is likely to be a very tiny footnote on the back page. In fact, it’s quite possible to break down the tax implications even more precisely and then target mailers and social media to very narrow segments of the population.

What happens to the suburban vote when families learn that a third or a half of them are getting a tax hike so that Republicans can fund a tax cut for big business and the rich? Or in Republican districts in blue states where lots of people learn that their net taxes are going up thanks to the elimination of the mortgage interest deduction or the state and local tax deduction? And that’s all on top of a Democratic electorate that’s pissed off and ready to vote in big numbers. I sure wouldn’t want to be the guy who has to defend this.


The more we thought about how MoJo's journalism can have the most impact heading into the 2020 election, the more we realized that so many of today's stories come down to corruption: democracy and the rule of law being undermined by the wealthy and powerful for their own gain.

So we're launching a new Mother Jones Corruption Project to do deep, time-intensive reporting on systemic corruption. We aim to hire, build a team, and give them the time and space needed to understand how we got here and how we might get out. We'll publish what we find as a major series in the summer of 2020, including a special issue of our magazine, a dedicated online portal, and video and podcast series so it doesn't get lost in the daily deluge of breaking news.

It's unlike anything we've done before and we've got seed funding to get started, but we're asking readers to help crowdfund this new beat with an additional $500,000 so we can go even bigger. You can read why we're taking this approach and what we want to accomplish in "Corruption Isn't Just Another Scandal. It's the Rot Beneath All of Them," and if you like how it sounds, please help fund it with a tax-deductible donation today.

We Recommend


Sign up for our newsletters

Subscribe and we'll send Mother Jones straight to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.


Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.