The US economy grew 4.1 percent in the second quarter:
That’s a big number, but it might be an outlier. GDP is a little unusual in being routinely reported as growth from the previous quarter, rather than the more normal growth over the previous year. Year-over-year growth is less noisy and is therefore a better guide to what’s really going on, so I’ve included both in my chart this time around. As you can see, YOY growth was 2.8 percent in Q2, and this number has been growing steadily since early 2016. This is a positive sign, and who knows? Maybe we’ll hit 3 percent by the end of the year.
Either way, though, I think 2.8 percent—which is a perfectly strong number—is most likely the best indicator of actual economic growth right now. Time will tell how long we can keep this up.