Poll Projection: Biden Has 88% Chance of Winning

A lot of people seem to be confused about exactly what the polls currently say about the presidential race. Just for the record, then, here’s a selection of projections constructed by Andrew Gelman and published by the Economist. The full set of projections is here. It’s a useful baseline for comparison to polls a week from now, which might give us some idea of whether either candidate benefited from a poll bounce.

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