Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: September 1 Update

Here’s the coronavirus death toll through August 31. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

But before we get to that, something else first. Deaths from COVID-19 are close to zero throughout Europe, but over the past few weeks there’s been a worrisome surge in cases. The biggest surge is in Spain, which is also seeing a rise in mortality, followed by France—which, oddly, isn’t, even after six weeks of rising cases. Italy’s case count is also on the rise, though at a lower pace.

It’s hard not to draw a grim conclusion from this: nearly any loosening of social distancing rules, even in places where the virus has been crushed, will lead to an outbreak of new cases. And if there’s an outbreak of new cases, eventually there will be an outbreak of new deaths too.

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