Can Halloween Mask Sales Predict the Election?

Fight disinformation: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter and follow the news that matters.


Obama%20mask.jpgMcCain.jpg According to Fortune magazine, more than one Halloween mask retailer has claimed they can correctly predict who will win the White House. Spirit Halloween, the largest seasonal Halloween vendor in the US, says Bush outsold Kerry two to one in 2004, Gore sold 14 percent fewer masks in 2000, and Clinton masks won with 71 percent in 1996.

We decided to update Fortune‘s presidential mask findings for 2008 thus far; here’s what we found.

At Buycostumes.com, which tracks the sales of its paper masks, Obama is currently ahead 54 to 46 percent against McCain, though Sarah Palin masks are outselling Joe Biden masks three to one. Buycostumes.com’s poll page has a US map with state breakdowns, including a few noteworthy results: Texas and Mississippi have gone blue this year, while Rhode Island, Vermont, and Maine favor Republican masks. The erratic results suggest that some are buying masks to support while others to mock the candidates, though in the past, total sales—regardless of motive—have predicted the winning candidate.

Over at Amazon.com a running tally updates each hour with the latest sales of vinyl and paper masks. Obama’s ahead there, too, though his mask is slightly cheaper: $12.90 versus $12.95 for McCain.

Overall this year, Obama is ahead, with 66 percent of national sales. His mask has hefty margins in all of the swing states, though McCain’s is close in Delaware, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

But nothing is set in stone: Most costume sales are made in the last two weeks before the holiday. Can your Halloween garb affect the election? Notes Buycostumes.com, “This poll can be bought!”

—Brittney Andres

Images from Disguise.com

LET’S TALK ABOUT OPTIMISM FOR A CHANGE

Democracy and journalism are in crisis mode—and have been for a while. So how about doing something different?

Mother Jones did. We just merged with the Center for Investigative Reporting, bringing the radio show Reveal, the documentary film team CIR Studios, and Mother Jones together as one bigger, bolder investigative journalism nonprofit.

And this is the first time we’re asking you to support the new organization we’re building. In “Less Dreading, More Doing,” we lay it all out for you: why we merged, how we’re stronger together, why we’re optimistic about the work ahead, and why we need to raise the First $500,000 in online donations by June 22.

It won’t be easy. There are many exciting new things to share with you, but spoiler: Wiggle room in our budget is not among them. We can’t afford missing these goals. We need this to be a big one. Falling flat would be utterly devastating right now.

A First $500,000 donation of $500, $50, or $5 would mean the world to us—a signal that you believe in the power of independent investigative reporting like we do. And whether you can pitch in or not, we have a free Strengthen Journalism sticker for you so you can help us spread the word and make the most of this huge moment.

payment methods

LET’S TALK ABOUT OPTIMISM FOR A CHANGE

Democracy and journalism are in crisis mode—and have been for a while. So how about doing something different?

Mother Jones did. We just merged with the Center for Investigative Reporting, bringing the radio show Reveal, the documentary film team CIR Studios, and Mother Jones together as one bigger, bolder investigative journalism nonprofit.

And this is the first time we’re asking you to support the new organization we’re building. In “Less Dreading, More Doing,” we lay it all out for you: why we merged, how we’re stronger together, why we’re optimistic about the work ahead, and why we need to raise the First $500,000 in online donations by June 22.

It won’t be easy. There are many exciting new things to share with you, but spoiler: Wiggle room in our budget is not among them. We can’t afford missing these goals. We need this to be a big one. Falling flat would be utterly devastating right now.

A First $500,000 donation of $500, $50, or $5 would mean the world to us—a signal that you believe in the power of independent investigative reporting like we do. And whether you can pitch in or not, we have a free Strengthen Journalism sticker for you so you can help us spread the word and make the most of this huge moment.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate