Peak Oil in 4 Years?

Photo Divulgação Petrobras / ABr, courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Get your news from a source that’s not owned and controlled by oligarchs. Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily.


A new model predicts peak oil—the point where global oil production reaches a maximum and then declines—as early as 2014. Other models predict 2020 or later.

The new model is a more sophisticated version of the 1956 Hubbert model that accurately predicted peak oil in the US in 1970. That forecast was considered extremely pessimistic at the time. The new multicyclic model incorporates the complexities of oil production in other countries heavily influenced by fluctuating ecological, economical, technological, and political factors.

Evaluating the oil production trends of the 47 major oil-producing countries that supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil, the researchers accelerated the forecast for peak oil to 2014, and showed that global oil reserves are being depleted by 2.1 percent a year. The authors suggest their new model could help speed efforts to conserve oil and intensify the search for alternative fuel sources:

“Even though it is inevitable to preclude the possibility of minor inaccurate forecasting results, still it is of paramount importance that the forecast be conducted. Without the forecast, a valid decision or public policy debate on a national or global scale cannot be made.”

Their paper is available open access at ACS Publication’s Energy & Fuels.
 

BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things they don’t like—which is most things that are true.

No one gets to tell Mother Jones what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

payment methods

BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things they don’t like—which is most things that are true.

No one gets to tell Mother Jones what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate