January 5, 2012

GOP Primary Predictor: How Will the Chaotic Contest End?

Our interactive app lets you decide how the remaining contests will play out.

As “front-runner” Mitt Romney continues to underperform, the fight for delegates in the GOP primary has turned epic. With this interactive tool, you can fill in what you think the results of the remaining contests will be and share your predictions. What happens to Romney’s lead if Rick Santorum or Ron Paul does well in Louisiana or Wisconsin? Where might Newt grab more delegates? It’s still anybody’s game—and you can game out any scenario you like. To get started, just click on a state and assign delegates (because remember, it’s delegates, not percentages, that ultimately determine the nominee) to each candidate. Help rescue the GOP from total chaos.

How does this thing work?

Other frequently asked questions

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FAQ

Q: Why am I picking delegates, not vote percentages?

A: Think of it like the Electoral College: It’s delegates who eventually pick the nominee, and a candidate has to get 1,143 to win. States have varying rules for allotting those delegates, but with the exception of a few winner-take-all spots (Delaware, DC, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wisconsin), it’s usually safe to assume that delegates will go to the candidates in roughly the proportion of the vote. Want to learn more? Richard Berg-Andersson’s Green Papers blog is a great place to start; Frontloading HQ, a blog run by political scientist Josh Putnam, is another good source if you really want the nitty-gritty.

Q: What about the whole momentum thing?

Definitely key—and you can simulate it by entering multiple state predictions. Think Rick Santorum’s Iowa surge will carry into New Hampshire? Guessing he’ll galvanize conservatives in South Carolina but flame out by Super Tuesday? Game it all the way out.

Q: Will you update the results?

Absolutely. For each primary, we’ll enter the Associated Press’ numbers as soon as the state is called and update with the official results once they are released.

Q: What about candidates who drop out?

A: Their delegate count up to that point will be reflected in the totals on the left, but they’ll be taken off the prediction tool. So for example, you won’t be assigning delegates to Michele Bachmann.

Q: What’s up with Virginia?

A: Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry failed to qualify for the Virginia primary, but they’re contesting the decision. You can include them in this primary or not, based on what you think will happen.

Q: Why were my results for Ohio and Georgia off?

A: Since first publishing our predictor, new information came out that changed the number of delegates in certain states and their winner takes all status, and we didn’t update Ohio and Georgia in time. We’ve now updated all of the states, and we’ll do our best to stay as up-to-date as possible with this constantly evolving information. 

Q: Are you doing any other election coverage?

Glad you asked! 

Q: Okay, think I’ll give it a shot. So how exactly does this thing work?

how to use this tool

Sources: GreenPapers.com, Frontloading HQ, Associated Press

Front page image: Brian Gielczyk/Shutterstock; Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

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