Karl Rove: For Romney to Win “Some Polls Have to Be Wrong”

Even Karl Rove, the political genius of the Republican Party, admits it: For Mitt Romney to win the presidential election on Tuesday, “some polls” have to be wrong. That’s because those polls, especially in key swing states, show President Obama headed for victory, albeit a very narrow one.

Rove went on Fox News Monday night to give his final assessment of the Obama-Romney showdown. His prediction was that Romney would scrape together a win with 285 electoral votes, all but sweeping the president in the key swing states of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Iowa. And while Rove’s own analysis of recent presidential polls put the presidential race at a dead heat, he conceded to Fox’s Bret Baier that “some polls have to be wrong a little” for Romney to win.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is far less charitable toward Romney: He predicts Romney will claim a miserly 224 electoral voters, and stands only an 8.6 percent chance of winning the election. The right-leaning RealClearPolitics says the race is a statistical tie at 48 percent for both candidates.

Here’s the video of Rove (the segment starts at the 3:30 mark) followed by a transcript of the moment in question:

Baier: Bottom line: For Romney to win Tuesday, these polls have to be wrong.

Rove: Some polls have to be wrong a little, because the race is that close. Remember, take a look at the national polls. Just simply in the last week, 23 polls, you average them all together, 48.3 [percent] for Romney, 48.1 for Obama. That’s as of 10 o’clock this morning. So it is dead even, knife’s edge, long night, exciting outcome.

The way all the polls look, Rove’s likely to be right about one thing: It’s going to be a long night on Tuesday.

HERE ARE THE FACTS:

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ONE MORE QUICK THING:

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As we wrote over the summer, traffic has been down at Mother Jones and a lot of sites with many people thinking news is less important now that Donald Trump is no longer president. But if you're reading this, you're not one of those people, and we're hoping we can rally support from folks like you who really get why our reporting matters right now. And that's how it's always worked: For 45 years now, a relatively small group of readers (compared to everyone we reach) who pitch in from time to time has allowed Mother Jones to do the type of journalism the moment demands and keep it free for everyone else.

Please pitch in with a donation during our fall fundraising drive if you can. We can't afford to come up short, and there's still a long way to go by November 5.

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