Josh Harkinson

Reporter

Born in Texas and based in San Francisco, Josh covers the economy, corporations, and a wide range of political issues in California and the West.

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Joe Lieberman, New Senate Power Broker?

—By Josh Harkinson

| Wed Nov. 8, 2006 1:05 AM PST

Any predictions of the Democrats taking the Senate assume Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, who was reelected yesterday as an independent, will caucus with them. (Mother Jones was among the first to report on Lieberman's intentions here). Although Lieberman has never indicated he will defect to the GOP, his new status as an independent would give him substantial power to pit both sides against each other to push his own policies. Keep an eye out in coming days for which way Joe-mentum goes.

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Will the Democrats Win the Senate? The Bookies Have Spoken!

—By Josh Harkinson

| Tue Nov. 7, 2006 11:42 PM PST

Forget the pundits, the Huffington Post has linked to tradesports.com, which is taking bets on election 2006. This is how it works: the Republican Party is like a stock. You can buy in whenever you want. If the GOP takes the senate, the stock hits 100 and you get paid. If the GOP loses the senate, the stock hits zero (but hey, maybe you'll make your money back once the Democrats turn the economy around).

So what's the GOP Senate prospect trading at? Well, in the days leading up to the election it was hovering around 70. Now it's at. . . . 13.5.

My bet's that the Democrats take the Senate.

Looking to 2008: This Year's Secretary of State Races (Who will Replace Ken Blackwell?)

—By Josh Harkinson

| Tue Nov. 7, 2006 10:25 PM PST

Democrat Jennifer Brunner is solidly ahead of Republican Greg Hartmann in the race to fill the secretary of state job vacated in Ohio by (failed gubernatorial bidder) Ken Blackwell, who orchestrated the 2004 presidential election scandal in the nation's most important swing state. Across the country, returns are arriving for sec state races that could help decide whether Democrats get a fair shake in a tight 2008 presidential election race.

In general, Democrats in hotly contested swing states are running strong. Minnesota Democrat Mark Ritchie solidly leads incumbent Mary Kiffmeyer, who famously attempted to prevent absentee voters from changing their ballots after Sen. Paul Wellstone died that year in a plane crash. Nevada Democrat Ross Miller is ahead 11 points in (very early) returns against Danny Tarkanian, who wants to make voter-ID legislation his "first priority as secretary of state."

The bloodiest fights for Democrats are in the mountain West. Ken Gordon trails his opponent by roughly 100,000 votes in Colorado—a surprise in a race that had recently polled as a dead heat. In New Mexico—a swing state that went for Bush in 2004 by a margin of.79 percent--Democrat Mary Herrera leads Vickie Perea by two points.

For an analysis of how a new group, the Secretary of State Project, helped swing these races, see my Mother Jones story here.

Fighting Dem Joe Sestak Shoots Down Curt Weldon in PA

—By Josh Harkinson

| Tue Nov. 7, 2006 9:21 PM PST

Weldon's loss to a war vet illustrates how swift boating efforts can backfire. Republicans accused Sestak of improperly wearing his uniform while campaigning, claiming the wrong military rank and abusing subordinates while in the Navy. For a complete rundown on Republican swift boat efforts this year, and the Democrat response, see my Mother Jones story, Swift Boating the Fighting Dems. The American Prospect later reported that Weldon's campaign had queried Weldon's Navy colleagues for dirt on Sestak, in possible violation of House rules. In more ways than one, Weldon wrapped up the month looking like a dirty bird: mid-month the FBI raided his daughter's house as part of an investigation into whether he helped her win lobbying and consulting contracts.

Could Greens Spoil a Democrat Senate Takeback?

—By Josh Harkinson

| Tue Nov. 7, 2006 8:25 PM PST

In the ultra-super-tight Virginia Senate race, where Jim Webb and George Allen are less than a point apart, the Green candidate, Gail Parker, is pulling down 1.11 percent of the vote. If the current spread holds, she could throw the election to Allen, and potentially allow Republicans to keep the Senate. Parker is running as a member of the Independent Greens of Virginia, a party that branched off of the national Green Party because the bosses there "don't really believe in running candidates," IGVA campaign coordinator Joseph Oddo said. Is Oddo worried his party will pull a Nader? "No, we don't see it that way," he says. "We see people who are sending a message that they are tired of politics as usual."

Oddo says his party hasn't received any Republican cash--though it is surely getting plenty of Republican prayers tonight.