• How About an Easy Look at August Inflation?

    In a desperate attempt not to write about Ukrainegate for the moment, how about a look at the latest inflation figures? Exciting! First off, here’s the Wall Street Journal explanation of what happened:

    U.S. inflation slowed in August after a pickup in the previous month…The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.03% last month from July, the Commerce Department said Friday, its smallest gain since January. The so-called core index, which strips out volatile food and energy components, rose 0.14% in August.

    The sluggish gains last month kept inflation well below the Fed’s annual target of 2%. Compared with August 2018, the main index was up 1.44%—the same as in July—although core inflation stood at 1.77%, its highest level since January. Friday’s figures contrast with other data showing that inflationary pressures are building in the U.S. after a very weak start to the year.

    Did you get that? Inflation slowed, with core inflation of 0.14 percent in August. This is well below the target rate of 2 percent, which is not surprising since it’s a one-month number and the target rate is an annual number. You can’t compare them. Then we learn that core inflation actually stood at 1.77 percent year-over-year, its highest level since January. But 0.14 percent in a month is the same at 1.77 percent in a year. So why is the former “sluggish” while the latter is “the highest level since January”? They’re the same thing!

    Does this make any sense to you? It doesn’t to me. Instead, how about if we stick with one measure—PCE core inflation on an annual basis—and see how it’s doing:

    The answer is: not much. There’s a slight upward trend since the end of the Great Recession along with a lot of noise. We’ve seen three consecutive months of rising core inflation, but that’s obviously meaningless noise at the point.

    So that’s the analysis: we’ve seen a slight increase over the past three months, but overall core inflation remains well under control and well under the Fed’s 2 percent target. End of story.

  • Housekeeping

    I am sick again. In fact, this is a precise rerun of what happened last Thursday. It’s very strange.

    In any case, I gather that Trump’s effort to hide the Ukraine readout has somehow convinced Republicans even more that he did nothing wrong. This is gonna be a tough one.

  • Yes, Of Course There Was a Quid Pro Quo

    Was there a quid pro quo in President Trump’s phone call with the president of Ukraine? That is, did he ask for an investigation of a political opponent in return for providing military aid that Congress had already approved?

    There is, of course, not an explicit request. There never is. But it’s pretty obvious anyway to anyone who’s not desperately trying to pretend things away. Here is conservative David French:

    I haven’t been a litigator since 2015. I haven’t conducted a proper cross-examination since 2014. But if I couldn’t walk a witness, judge, and jury through the transcript of Donald Trump’s call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and demonstrate that a quid pro quo was more likely than not, then I should just hang up my suit and retire in disgrace.

    Here’s an attorney friend of mine via email:

    In the legal world, where there is well-established case law on what constitutes a QPQ, particularly in criminal matters, the Ukrainegate transcript would appear to fall into the garden-variety lay-up category.

    Of course there was a quid pro quo. We aren’t children here.

  • Press Conference Madness

    Well, that was quite a press conference from our president, wasn’t it? Just a long farrago of lies and wild accusations made up out of whole cloth, none of which I feel like giving more oxygen. But it was vintage Trump: whatever accusations are made against him he simply turns around and makes against his enemies, both perceived and real. This will then get amplified by his allies in conservative media.

    Strap in, folks. It’s gonna get bumpy.

  • Here’s an Abridged Version of the Trump-Zelensky Readout

    The readout of the Trump-Zelensky phone call is fairly short, but I suppose it’s still possible to miss its full import. So just to make things clear, here’s an abridged version of the call. Please note that this is not a joke. It sounds like it, but it’s a legitimate, honest-to-god abridgement:

    TRUMP: Congratulations.

    ZELENSKY: Thank you. You were a great example to us. We’re going to drain the swamp.

    TRUMP: That’s very nice. You know, we do a lot for Ukraine. Way more than those yakky Europeans.

    ZELENSKY: Yes indeed. I especially want to thank you for your support in the area of defense. We are ready to buy more weapons from you.

    TRUMP: I would like you to do us a favor though. Please look into the DNC server hack. Our attorney general will be calling you about that.

    ZELENSKY: Sure, sure, anything for you. I’m appointing a new ambassador so we can continue our strategic partnership.

    TRUMP: That’s great. I’d also like you to investigate Joe Biden’s son. Rudy Giuliani and our attorney general will be calling you about that.

    ZELENSKY: No problem. The next prosecutor general will be 100 percent my candidate. He or she will look into this.

    TRUMP: Great. I’ll have Giuliani and Barr call you. Your economy is going to get better and better, I predict.

    ZELENSKY: The last time I was in New York I stayed at the Trump Tower. We’ll be very serious about that investigation of Biden’s son.

    TRUMP: Good. Giuliani and Barr will call you.

    No quid pro quo? Please. Save that fairy tale for the children.

  • “The United States Has Been Very Good to Ukraine”

    Well, we have the readout of President Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “The United States has been very good to Ukraine,” Donald Trump tells him. Then there’s this:

    Trump not only asked Zelensky to look into Hunter Biden, but also into the bizarre conspiracy theory that Ukrainians were behind the DNC server hack. Zelensky, who is pathetically eager to suck up to Trump, just agrees to everything Trump asks.

    Next, of course, is to find out what Rudy Giuliani and William Barr said to Zelensky. Trump said they’d be calling to follow up.