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Atrios thinks any optimism about the economy is misplaced.  Homes prices are continuing to fall, plus this:

There’s still a big wave of ARM resets* coming, and the CRE implosion has just begun.

*Regarding ARM resets, some suggest this won’t be a problem because interests rates are so low. But the issue is option ARMS (“pick a payment!”) loans, where people have been making interest-only or even neg-am payments on the loans.

For what it’s worth (about what you’re paying for it, I’d say), I agree. Home prices probably have another 9-12 months left to fall, commercial real estate is imploding, rising savings rates are going to continue to depress consumption, and beyond that there’s the rest of the world to think about too.  Eastern Europe looks set to collapse sometime later this year, and if/when that happens it’s going to have a huge impact on western European banks.  Plus there’s hedge funds.  So far they’ve weathered the storm fairly well, all things considered, but I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on that score.

Anyway, that’s all pretty discouraging stuff.  Hopefully we’re both wrong and things are going to start picking up this summer.  But I’m afraid I doubt it.

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LET’S TALK ABOUT OPTIMISM FOR A CHANGE

Democracy and journalism are in crisis mode—and have been for a while. So how about doing something different?

Mother Jones did. We just merged with the Center for Investigative Reporting, bringing the radio show Reveal, the documentary film team CIR Studios, and Mother Jones together as one bigger, bolder investigative journalism nonprofit.

And this is the first time we’re asking you to support the new organization we’re building. In “Less Dreading, More Doing,” we lay it all out for you: why we merged, how we’re stronger together, why we’re optimistic about the work ahead, and why we need to raise the First $500,000 in online donations by June 22.

It won’t be easy. There are many exciting new things to share with you, but spoiler: Wiggle room in our budget is not among them. We can’t afford missing these goals. We need this to be a big one. Falling flat would be utterly devastating right now.

A First $500,000 donation of $500, $50, or $5 would mean the world to us—a signal that you believe in the power of independent investigative reporting like we do. And whether you can pitch in or not, we have a free Strengthen Journalism sticker for you so you can help us spread the word and make the most of this huge moment.

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