Has the Economy Bottomed?

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Atrios thinks any optimism about the economy is misplaced.  Homes prices are continuing to fall, plus this:

There’s still a big wave of ARM resets* coming, and the CRE implosion has just begun.

*Regarding ARM resets, some suggest this won’t be a problem because interests rates are so low. But the issue is option ARMS (“pick a payment!”) loans, where people have been making interest-only or even neg-am payments on the loans.

For what it’s worth (about what you’re paying for it, I’d say), I agree. Home prices probably have another 9-12 months left to fall, commercial real estate is imploding, rising savings rates are going to continue to depress consumption, and beyond that there’s the rest of the world to think about too.  Eastern Europe looks set to collapse sometime later this year, and if/when that happens it’s going to have a huge impact on western European banks.  Plus there’s hedge funds.  So far they’ve weathered the storm fairly well, all things considered, but I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on that score.

Anyway, that’s all pretty discouraging stuff.  Hopefully we’re both wrong and things are going to start picking up this summer.  But I’m afraid I doubt it.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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