Will Redistricting Save California?

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This is a totally inside baseball post for fellow Californians who know more about what’s going on in Sacramento than I do. As background for everyone else, California has an enormous hole in its budget and Gov. Jerry Brown wants to plug that hole with a combination of spending cuts and tax extensions. However, you need a two-thirds vote in the legislature to raise taxes, and Democrats are a couple of votes short in both the Senate and the Assembly. Negotiations have been ongoing with the tiny handful of Republicans who are at least willing to talk, but they’ve gone nowhere.

So, anyway, it all looks hopeless. But maybe not! I was chatting with a friend on Memorial Day who deals with lots of Sacramento lobbyist types, and he said those lobbyists were unanimously reporting that there was no problem. A deal would be made and revenue would be raised. I was astonished. Sure, that might be true, but it sure doesn’t look that way right now. What makes these lobbyists so confident?

Answer: redistricting. In a few days a commission will announce California’s new legislative districts based on the 2010 census, and some number of legislators are going to find themselves without a home and without a political future. Some of them will be Republicans, and those Republicans will be willing to cut a deal with Brown because they don’t have to worry about the wrath of the voters anymore.

Hmmm. Really? It seems to me the same thing could be said about legislators who are being booted out in 2012 due to term limits, but that doesn’t seem to have helped the process along. Part of the problem is that only a handful of Republicans are being termed out, and all but three or four of them are ultraconservatives who aren’t going to compromise on taxes regardless of their future. I’d be surprised if redistricting ended up impacting more than two or three non-wingnut Republicans either.

But what do I know? So I put it to my California readers who follow state politics closely: are my friend’s lobbyists super plugged in and know things the rest of us don’t? Or are they just telling their bosses what they want to hear? Is redistricting Jerry Brown’s secret hope for a deal with Republicans to extend the tax hikes that were put in place a couple of years ago? Or is this just whistling into the wind?

HERE ARE THE FACTS:

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ONE MORE QUICK THING:

Our fall fundraising drive is off to a rough start, and we very much need to raise $250,000 in the next couple of weeks. If you value the journalism you get from Mother Jones, please help us do it with a donation today.

As we wrote over the summer, traffic has been down at Mother Jones and a lot of sites with many people thinking news is less important now that Donald Trump is no longer president. But if you're reading this, you're not one of those people, and we're hoping we can rally support from folks like you who really get why our reporting matters right now. And that's how it's always worked: For 45 years now, a relatively small group of readers (compared to everyone we reach) who pitch in from time to time has allowed Mother Jones to do the type of journalism the moment demands and keep it free for everyone else.

Please pitch in with a donation during our fall fundraising drive if you can. We can't afford to come up short, and there's still a long way to go by November 5.

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