There’s exactly one month left until the November election, and that means it’s time for predictions. As usual in a presidential cycle, there are three categories this year:
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Winner and total electoral votes for president. - Composition of the House. Current composition is 190 D, 240 R (5 vacancies).
- Composition of the Senate. Current composition is 53 D/I, 47 R.
This year, instead of giving my own projections, I decided to provide an official line as forecast by Sam Wang, this blog’s semi-official election forecaster (and winner of the 2008 election pool). Here it is:
- President: Obama 332, Romney 206
- House: 217 D, 218 R.
- Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R.
The links take you to Sam’s posts, which include error bars and other details. Can you do better than Sam? His presidential forecast sure seems optimistic to me. I’m thinking Obama wins something in the neighborhood of 300-310 electoral votes. In any case, put your guess in comments. The winner gets a one-year subscription to Mother Jones and the adulation of your peers.
