• Obamacare Premium Update

    Charles Gaba has been diligently tracking requests for 2019 Obamacare premium hikes, and he’s got good news and bad news. The good news is that insurance companies are requesting lower rates this year. If things were normal, rates would be going down about 5 percent next year.

    The bad news is that things aren’t normal. Republicans have been busily sabotaging Obamacare as best they can, partly by refusing to pay Cost Sharing Reduction payments and partly by eliminating the tax fine for not being covered. Insurance companies have to account for these uncertainties, and as a result the average premium request is about 4 percent higher than last year.

    So there you have it. We could have had a 5 percent cut, but thanks to the endless Republican bitterness toward Obamacare, we’re getting a 4 percent increase instead. For those of you who are my age and aren’t receiving subsidies, that’s a difference of about $1,000 or so per year. Be sure to thank the Republican Party when you write the check.

    For those of you who do receive subsidies, nothing much should change either way. Your premium will max out at a percentage of your income, and that’s that. Drink a toast to the Democratic Party when you write your check.

  • Brett Kavanaugh Sure Does Love Giant Corporations

    Stephanie Mencimer reports that Brett Kavanaugh, Donald Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court, has a well-developed judicial philosophy:

    In both his rulings and public speeches, he has criticized a Supreme Court precedent that instructs judges to defer to federal agencies when interpreting environmental or consumer protection regulations. He has suggested that such deference allows federal agencies to run amok in their efforts to crack down on alleged wrongdoing by polluters or dangerous industries, and that the high court precedent may be a mistake.

    ….A new study out from the consumer group Public Citizen found that in his decisions from the bench, Kavanaugh’s distaste for the work of federal agencies like the EPA or the FCC on regulatory issues has not been so consistent. President George W. Bush appointed Kavanaugh to the influential DC Circuit Court of Appeals in 2006, and since then, he’s been involved in more than 1,000 cases. Public Citizen found that in many of the most contentious ones, Kavanaugh has frequently argued in favor of deferring to federal regulatory agencies—but only when they’re ruling in favor of big corporations.

    This practically begs for a chart. So here it is:

    Impressive! In any case where there’s a scintilla of doubt, Kavanaugh votes for big corporations 87 percent of the time. In police abuse and antitrust cases, he takes the side of The Man a full 100 percent of the time.

    As usual, it may be the working class that helped vote Republicans into power, but it’s the business class that gets all the rewards.

  • Republicans and the Russell Building

    Would you buy a used Senate office building from this man?

    I’m curious about something. A few hours after John McCain’s death, Sen. Chuck Schumer proposed renaming the Russell Building after McCain. Am I the only person in the world who assumed this was a political trap on Schumer’s part? Because that’s exactly what came immediately to my mind. He knew perfectly well that (a) Trump hated McCain, (b) the rest of the Republican Party didn’t like McCain all that much, especially after his surprise vote to kill Obamacare repeal, but (c) refusing to rename the building—particularly when it was a chance to take down the name of a famous Democratic racist—would be politically embarrassing.

    I dunno. Maybe I’m wrong. Schumer and McCain became friendly during their work on the Gang of 8 immigration plan in 2013, but they weren’t buddy-buddy, were they? This has a strong aroma of political calculation to me, but maybe it was a completely sincere gesture of respect. Any other opinions out there?

  • Trump Urges Evangelicals to Prep for Violence After They Lose Election

    "Hmmm. Should I re-lower the flag for McCain? Ivanka and Sarah want me to. But I already raised it. Might look weak. And I really hate that little prick. Then again, it would drive tons of cable coverage, and all coverage is good coverage, right? Fine. I'll lower it just as soon as—" What? Oh, right, Amen.Olivier Douliery/CNP via ZUMA

    Donald Trump lied to a bunch of evangelical leaders last night, but that’s no big deal. “Thou shalt not lie” isn’t actually one of the Ten Commandments, which is a good thing or else Trump would have self-immolated decades ago. However, he did make some progress in converting evangelicals into his very own private army of brownshirts:

    At stake in the November midterms, Trump told the audience, are all the gains he has made for conservative Christians.

    “The level of hatred, the level of anger is unbelievable,” he said. “Part of it is because of some of the things I’ve done for you and for me and for my family, but I’ve done them. … This Nov. 6 election is very much a referendum on not only me, it’s a referendum on your religion, it’s a referendum on free speech and the First Amendment.”

    If the GOP loses, he said, “they will overturn everything that we’ve done and they’ll do it quickly and violently, and violently. There’s violence. When you look at Antifa and you look at some of these groups — these are violent people.”

    First things first: telling his audience that the election is a referendum on “your religion” is refreshingly honest, since everyone knows that Trump himself has no particular religious beliefs other than “an eye for an eye—and then some.”

    But the rest of it is—well, what is it? It’s not clear exactly what Democrats will overturn if they take power, but there are certainly a few things here and there they’d take a crack at. So that’s fair enough. But violently? If Republicans lose, Democrats are going to overturn free speech and the First Amendment and they’re going to do it “quickly and violently”? The only reason to say something like that is to prep your supporters to become violent themselves. Be ready to take to the streets if Democrats win! I guess that’s what Trump is girding his loins for.

  • Lunchtime Photo

    This is a lovely bearded iris in Marian’s garden. By the laws of community property in the state of California, it’s my garden too, but seriously folks, we all know whose garden it is. When it comes to gardenology, I rank #4 among the critters who call this place home.

    July 18, 2018 — Irvine, California
  • Socialism Is the New Black

    What is socialism? That is, what is socialism in the context of the United States of America in the year 2018? Today we get two expert takes on this question. First up, there’s The Chapo Guide to Revolution: A Manifesto Against Logic, Facts and Reason, written by the guys who do the popular Chapo Trap House podcast. Full disclosure: I’ve listened to their podcast a few times, but I’ve never managed to get through an entire episode. It’s just too boring. If they spent more time attacking sellout neolib shills like me, I’d probably enjoy it more, but no such luck.

    Anyway, Bill Scher reviews their book for Politico today under a headline that asks, “Is This the Stupidest Book Ever Written About Socialism?” This is a rhetorical question which Scher answers anyway by demonstrating, first, that the authors know nothing about history, and second, they they know nothing about economics:

    The Chapo Way is here to give us a rigorously researched and fine-tuned alternative for not only ending wealth inequality and racism, but also ending the scourge of soul-deadening work. After slogging through 276 of the book’s 282 pages of bad history and, I hate to tell you, “tepid” jokes, the authors finally get around to their grand plan. Spoiler alert! This is literally it, in its entirety:

    “After setting everyone on equal footing (by seizing the billionaires’ money, socializing their wealth, and handing the keys of production over to workers), you’re looking at an economy that requires something like a three-hour workday, with machines taking care of most of the drudgery; and—as our public fund pays for things like health care, education, scientific research, and infrastructure—all this technology actually makes work quicker, easier, and more enjoyable.”

    Luckily we have a second socialism primer to choose from today. It’s over at Vox and it’s titled “The big idea that could make democratic socialism a reality.” The author is Matt Yglesias but the big idea comes from Matt Bruenig. It is, naturally, a way of redistributing wealth, which starts with a massive tax increase:

    ….including a one-off starter tax on market capitalization, an IPO tax (matched by an equivalent tax on private companies that are acquired by public ones), a financial transactions tax, a mergers and acquisitions tax, a tax on investment fund management, and the idea that “inheritance and gift taxes should be massively increased with their revenues going into the ASF as a collective inheritance for everyone, not just the children of the affluent.” Last but by no means least, he calls for $515 billion a year to be raised by eliminating existing tax breaks for private savings — including tax-preferred savings accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs, the preferential tax rate for capital gains and dividend income, and the tax-free status of capital gains accrued from sales of owner-occupied housing.

    This would raise—what? A trillion dollars a year? Let’s go with that. This money would be invested in the stock market, which currently has a capitalization of about $30 trillion. Within 30 years, then, the United States would be a full socialist society, with the federal government owning the means of production via the stock market. Presumably the feds would run all public companies—which would really be public at this point—and distribute dividends on a monthly basis to every resident of the country.

    This proposal certainly sounds more sensible than the Chapo House nonsense, but I wonder. How much difference is there, really, between:

    • “seizing the billionaires’ money, socializing their wealth, and handing the keys of production over to workers”

    and

    • “Bruenig wants to see a social wealth fund financed with an array of new taxes on private wealth….Dividend payments would serve as a form of universal basic income….A giant social wealth fund that would not only finance a universal basic income but actively vote its shares is a potential game changer for the global economy….Would be a huge whale in the investment sea, potentially exerting vast influence over the conduct of private businesses.”

    So there you have it. These are both proposals for old-school socialism, with the government (or “the workers”) controlling the means of production and doling out money equitably to everyone who needs it. The details are different, and Bruenig at least pretends to have a path for getting there, but you’re not going to like either one if you have a soft spot in your heart for private enterprise.

    Which I do. Government-run enterprises are almost inevitably run badly and government controlled paychecks are almost inevitably corrupt beyond all imagining. Still, would that be worse than the immense amount of wealth and income inequality that we put up with today? That requires a bit of thought.

    No, wait. It doesn’t. It would be worse. A lot worse. I think I’ll stick with social democracy aka regulated capitalism, thankyouverymuch. Until the robots show up, of course, at which point we might as well just let them run everything.

  • Donald Trump Is Tired of Being Screwed by Google

    Donald Trump is pissed:

    Google search results for “Trump News” shows only the viewing/reporting of Fake New Media. In other words, they have it RIGGED, for me & others, so that almost all stories & news is BAD. Fake CNN is prominent. Republican/Conservative & Fair Media is shut out. Illegal? 96% of results on “Trump News” are from National Left-Wing Media, very dangerous. Google & others are suppressing voices of Conservatives and hiding information and news that is good. They are controlling what we can & cannot see. This is a very serious situation-will be addressed!

    And what’s to be done about this dire situation?

    The Trump administration is “taking a look” at whether Google and its search engine should be regulated by the government, Larry Kudlow, President Trump’s economic adviser, said Tuesday outside the White House. “We’ll let you know,” said Kudlow. “We’re taking a look at it.”

    Well, let’s take a look at what I get when I open a Google window and search for Trump:

    • CNN
    • Fox News
    • Vice News
    • Politico
    • Trump’s Twitter feed
    • Guardian
    • Politico
    • NBC News
    • News about #trump on Twitter
    • Donald J. Trump for President
    • Washington Post
    • Fox News
    • CNN
    • Pittsburgh Post Gazette
    • ABC6OnYourSide
    • Washington Times
    • CNBC
    • Vanity Fair
    • The Atlantic
    • New York
    • Wikipedia
    • ABC News
    • Trump Hotels.com
    • Vanity Fair
    • The Atlantic
    • Trump National Golf Club
    • White House.gov
    • New York Times
    • YouTube
    • Bloomberg
    • Trump Tower New York
    • Twitch.tv/trumpsc
    • USA Today
    • New Republic
    • RealClear Politics

    I got bored of transcribing sites after that, But it looks to me like about a third of them are sympathetic to Trump. The other two-thirds are standard news sites, and sure enough, their coverage is mostly about whatever dumb thing Trump has done lately. But what do you expect? It’s not like Trump gives them much to work with.

    Anyway, it’s obvious that Trump can’t “do anything” about this. It’s just another effort to bully someone into tweaking their algorithms to give him more positive coverage. First it was Facebook, then Twitter, and now Google. They’re all “shadow banning” the sources who are sympathetic to Trump, you see, and that’s an outrage. The White House demands that everyone give him more positive coverage!

  • For Trump, NAFTA Is All About Cars, Cars, Cars

    Lenin Nolly/EFE via ZUMA

    I’m trying to make some sense out of the NAFTA deal we’ve just made with Mexico, but it’s tough sledding. The first part is easy:

    • The agreement with Mexico requires 75% of a car’s value to be manufactured in North America, up from NAFTA’s current level of 62.5%, Reuters reported.

    Fine. That’s easy enough to understand, and I’m sure the rules for determining if something is manufactured in North America will stay the same. All that changes is the number. But then there’s this:

    • It would also require 40% to 45% of the car to be made by workers earning at least $16 per hour.

    Well, is it 40 percent or 45 percent? Based on other stories I’ve read, it sounds like it’s going to be 40 percent in most cases. But wait!

    White-collar work in North America could contribute up to 15% toward the car’s 40% labor threshold—which could potentially allow a car to qualify for duty-free treatment if 25% of its physical content were made with high-wage labor, the officials said. The credit for R&D would lift the Detroit manufacturers because they do the overwhelming amount of research, design and marketing work in North America. German, Japanese and Korean auto makers, by comparison, tend to do a greater amount of their R&D overseas.

    Labor rates in Mexican plants apparently range from $4-8 per hour, which probably means a quarter of all current labor is around $8 per hour. That needs to come up to $16. But what does “one quarter” mean? Is it a quarter of, say, all the parts that are assembled? A quarter of the cumulative time taken for each assembly task? A quarter of the entire labor value of the car? These definitions can make a big difference. For example, it could mean a pay increase of 40 percent for the highest-paid workers (to get them over the $16 level) but a pay decrease for everyone else (because any level below $16 doesn’t matter for 75 percent of the workers). Until we see the details it’s impossible to say.

    In any case, neither of these things seem like deal-killers for Canada, so it seems likely that Canada will sign on unless it has some reforms of its own that it insists on. Which it might.

    And one last thing: Note that nothing in this deal has anything to do with milk or lumber or fisheries or financial services or anything else. It’s just a couple of smallish changes to the section of NAFTA about cars. That’s it. That’s all that Donald Trump cares about. Plus he wants to rename the treaty because everyone hates NAFTA. I recommend MENGA, the Make El Norte Great Again Treaty.