• Lunchtime Photo

    This week is family week. Before Easter dinner on Sunday, I asked everyone to curate a photo for the coming week, and this is the first one up. Marian chose a picture of heather from Killarney Park in Ireland. This particular heather was on a path leading to the “Meeting of Waters,” where three bodies of water come together. Sadly, after getting to the end of the trail, everything was closed. We never did get to see the actual point where all the waters met.

    September 16, 2017 — Killarney National Park, Ireland
  • Chart of the Day: The Gun Homicide Mystery

    Wonkblog has an intriguing chart up today. It shows the percentage of homicides committed by guns over the past century:

    Note that this is not the homicide rate. It shows only the relative popularity of using guns to kill people:

    • There’s a big spike in gun popularity around 1920.
    • There’s another big spike around 1970.
    • There’s another big spike around 1990.
    • Finally, there’s a moderate spike starting in 2015.

    I find this mysterious. Why do guns bounce up and down so much as the weapon of choice for murdering people? And what took their place in, say, the 1950s? Knives? Is there any other method of killing people that accounts for a big share of homicides?

    I can think of possible explanations for each wave of gun violence. Maybe it was mob killings in 1920; a tidal wave of cheap handguns in 1970; crack in 1990; and gang violence in 2015. But those are just guesses based on nothing at all. However, I can’t even think of a wild guess that might explain the general cyclical nature of gun popularity. It seems to go in a roughly 20-year cycle with the exception of 1950.

    Anyone have any ideas?

  • Let’s Review the Tape on DACA

    Michael Nigro/Pacific Press via ZUMA

    Just in case you’ve lost count, here’s a rough timeline of negotiations over DACA, the “mini-DREAM” act that protects immigrant children who have lived in the US for many years:

    • September: Trump kills DACA.
    • Later in September: Trump tells Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer that he supports a legislative fix for DACA if he gets more border security funding in return. They agree.
    • The next day: Trump denies offering this deal.
    • October: Trump suddenly releases a long list of demands that he wants in return for DACA.
    • January: Trump says he’s fine with a clean DACA bill.
    • The next day: Aides remind Trump that, actually, he’s not fine with a clean DACA bill.
    • Later in January: Chuck Schumer offers Trump border security funding plus funding for the wall in return for DACA. Trump turns him down.
    • Still later in January: Trump now demands “four pillars” of immigration reform in return for DACA.
    • March: The Senate takes up DACA. Republicans reject every deal offered.
    • Later in March: Enraged at the lack of a deal, Trump begins a Twitter campaign insisting that Democrats are responsible for killing DACA.
    • Yesterday: Trump unleashes a barrage of staggeringly ignorant tweets about DACA and immigration in general. He blames Mexico and Democrats for all of it.
    • Today: A reporter asks Trump, “But aren’t you the one who killed DACA?” Trump doesn’t reply.

    This is the guy who claims to be the greatest dealmaker ever in history. He killed DACA; he refused every possible deal to reinstate it; he changed his demands almost daily; and he demonstrated approximately zero influence over Congress. So now he’s red-faced with anger and desperately trying to deflect blame for something that everyone knows he’s responsible for. What a putz.

  • Meet Juul, the Latest Teen Sensation

    Richard B. Levine/Levine Roberts/Newscom via ZUMA

    Cigarette smoking may be on the decline, but vaping is on the rise. The Wall Street Journal reports that the popularity of the Juul among high-school kids is skyrocketing:

    After two decades of declining teen cigarette use, “Juuling” is exploding. The Juul liquid’s 5% nicotine concentration is significantly higher than that of most other commercially available e-cigarettes. Juul Labs Inc., maker of the device, says one liquid pod delivers nicotine comparable to that delivered by a pack of cigarettes, or 200 puffs—important for adult smokers trying to switch to an e-cigarette. It is also part of what attracts teens to the product, which some experts say is potentially as addictive as cigarettes and has schools and parents scrambling to get a grip on the problem.

    But it’s not aimed at teens. Of course not:

    One big concern, addiction researchers say, is that Juul lacks many characteristics that deter people from smoking in the first place, such as a harsh smell and burnt-tobacco taste. Juul flavors include “Creme Brulee,” “Fruit Medley” and “Mango,” in addition to “Classic Tobacco.” … A Juul device fits easily in a pocket and looks nondescript when plugged into a laptop’s USB drive to recharge or sitting on a desk. Teachers say students gather in bathrooms, library carrels and locker rooms to pass Juuls. The minimal vapor and barely there smell makes it harder to detect than some other e-cigarettes.

    ….Criticism that it was designed to appeal to kids is “absolutely false,” says Ashley Gould, Juul Labs chief administrative officer. “It’s non-cylindrical because when smokers move away from cigarettes they don’t want to be reminded of cigarettes.” Something that could be plugged directly into a USB port was also convenient, she says….Ms. Gould says the company is trying to find more ways of working with local law enforcement to prevent sales to under-age customers. It is also looking at technologies that could disable the device on school grounds, she says.

    Easy come, easy go.

  • Raw Data: Southwest Border Apprehensions

    Donald Trump celebrated the spirit of Easter today by railing againt the “big flows” of immigrants crossing over illegally from Mexico. “Getting more dangerous,” he tweeted ominously. “They laugh at our dumb immigration laws.”

    Perhaps. But in case you’re interested in some baseline data to work from, here it is. Border apprehensions are generally taken as a proxy for changes in illegal immigration, under the assumption that more people getting caught means more people trying to cross. Here is ICE data for Southwest border apprehensions:

    You may decide for yourself if this seems like a dire situation.

  • The Head of the RNC Should Be Fired

    Jeff Malet/Newscom via ZUMA

    Here’s the latest from the head of the Republican Party:

    Why is this kind of routine smear acceptable? It’s revolting—or should be, anyway—but nobody even notices or bothers to complain anymore. We accept that top-ranking Republican Party officials are allowed to casually malign the patriotism of half the country with no more than a shrug. There wasn’t even a reason for this tweet. It was just something to pass the time.

    McDaniel should be fired. She’s unfit to lead a party.