• Ridgecrest Earthquake Update

    I promise not to become earthquake central around here, but since I mentioned the Garlock fault yesterday, here’s an update:

    The light green lines show the two new fault segments outlined by the aftershocks. The red line is the Garlock fault. As you can see, there was a fair amount of stress on a piece of the Garlock, but the only aftershocks have been a fair distance away from there. So maybe the Garlock isn’t in a lot of danger after all.

    Then again, maybe it is. This has been your updated earthquake forecast for the day.

  • ABC News Poll Shows Support for Abortion Rights Ticking Up

    Hey, we have yet another abortion poll today. According to the latest ABC News poll, support for legal abortion is at an all-time high:

    Intellectual honesty forces me to invoke Kevin’s Law here, just as I did for the recent Gallup poll that was slightly favorable toward the anti-abortion view. In the long-term, nothing has changed. The numbers for 2019 are identical to those in 1995, with some moderate bouncing around in between.

    On the other hand, there has been a steady upward trend in “always legal” since 2010, and a surprisingly strong spike upward since 2013. It’s possible this represents a backlash to the recent spate of draconian abortion laws passed in a bunch of red states. To the extent that it seems like access to abortion might really be in danger—rather than just the subject of the usual jabber from conservatives—perhaps people with mushy opinions suddenly decide that they support abortion rights after all.

    UPDATE: A Twitter follower points out that the ABC News chart is misleading because it doesn’t put the various polls on a proper timeline. Polls that are a month apart look the same as polls that are five years apart. Here’s a proper rendering of the data:

    In reality, there’s no sharp spike in 2019. There’s just a steady increase in support for legal abortion since about 2010.

  • The Evil Dex Makes a Comeback

    Blah. I visited my oncologist yesterday and I’ll be starting up the Evil Dex again (along with yet another maintenance med). The good news—such as it is—is that he gave me the option of taking the dex weekly or splitting it in half and taking it twice a week. I think I’ll try that. It’s possible that a half dose will have a small enough effect that I can sleep through it with a normal dose of Ambien. And if I can sleep normally, maybe it won’t affect my daytime performance either. Worth a try!

  • The Asylum Surge Is Finally Starting to Ease Up

    Border apprehensions are finally down a bit:

    The big argument, apparently, is over what caused this decline. Was it stepped-up Mexican enforcement? Or is it just the usual summer drop?

    Probably both. Plus a third thing that no one is talking about: what goes up must come down. This asylum boom has been bigger than ones in the past, but they never last forever and this one was never going to last forever either.

    If Donald Trump hadn’t mismanaged both the border and our Central American affairs in general, this might never have happened. Or maybe it had nothing to with Trump. There’s no way to know for sure. But Guatemala has been a cesspool of crime and street gangs for many years, and only under Trump did that turn into a huge migrant surge. Maybe Obama’s mushy, soft-hearted plan to help Guatemala become a better place to live had something to it after all.

  • It Was Lunacy Time At the Fifth Circuit Today

    It was nice while it lasted.Arne Dedert/DPA via ZUMA

    As you know, Obamacare is in court yet again. This time the argument is that when Congress reduced the individual mandate penalty to zero, they made the mandate unconstitutional. And if the mandate goes, then the whole law has to go.

    This is bedbug crazy, but Republicans managed to shop the case into the courtroom of a hard-right loon who totally agreed that Obamacare had to be deep sixed. Now it’s on appeal, and today a panel of the 5th Circuit Court heard oral arguments. Aside from the overall lunacy of the whole thing, there are two items worth highlighting. The first is, yet again, the question of whether anyone has standing to appeal the district court ruling in the first place:

    The appeals panel also spent a good chunk of the allotted 90 minutes asking questions on a third topic: whether the Democratic states and House of Representatives even have standing to appeal Judge O’Connor’s ruling….If the appeals court ultimately decides that neither the House nor the intervening Democratic states have standing, it could either let Judge O’Connor’s ruling stand or vacate it. In any event, the losing party will almost certainly appeal to the Supreme Court.

    Just imagine the following scenario:

    • Congress passes a law.
    • A future president doesn’t like it, so he refuses to defend it in court.
    • A crackpot district judge then declares the law unconstitutional. This affects the entire country.
    • There is no appeal. Finis.

    There is surely no one in the country who thinks this even remotely resembles how things are supposed to work. And yet the 5th Circuit is seriously mulling the possibility that this would be good law.

    The second item to highlight is the attitude of the Republican judges toward congressional intent. Here is one of them engaging in some mind reading:

    Appellate Judge Jennifer Elrod, a George W. Bush appointee, on Tuesday posited that lawmakers — who failed to agree on an Obamacare replacement plan two years ago — deliberately eliminated the mandate penalty because they knew the rest of the law would have to fall. She said perhaps lawmakers thought, “Aha, this is the silver bullet that’s going to undo Obamacare.”

    This is just straight-up Republican Party advocacy. There is, obviously, no question that Republicans would have repealed all of Obamacare if they could have. But they couldn’t. And the reason they couldn’t was because they didn’t have the votes.¹ It had nothing to do with what they thought, and even if it did, no court has any business trying to divine Congress’s hidden and unstated desires.

    Republicans squawk endlessly about “judicial activism” and the depredations of the liberal 9th Circuit. But what we heard today goes light years beyond anything the 9th Circuit has ever considered. If the 5th Circuit actually follows through on any of this stuff it would be little different from simply appointing themselves a separate legislature with the power to overturn any laws they didn’t like. And I’ll bet that not a single “constitutional conservative” will so much as mutter under their breath about this.

    ¹Quick refresher for those who don’t remember what happened. Republicans wanted to repeal Obamacare but they needed 60 votes to do it. They didn’t have 60 votes, so they could only do a limited amount under reconciliation rules. Those rules allow fiscal legislation to pass with 51 votes as long as it doesn’t increase the budget deficit. The CBO ruled that eliminating the mandate penalty would cost some money, but it would save even more because lots of people would drop out of Obamacare and thus wouldn’t have to be subsidized. That’s what made it OK to eliminate the mandate penalty. And aside from their dislike of the mandate, the real reason Republicans repealed it is because the CBO’s analysis opened up some budget room for other stuff Republicans also wanted to do.

  • British PM Candidate’s Strategy: Ride Hatred of Donald Trump to Victory

    David Mirzoeff/PA Wire via ZUMA

    There’s a fascinating bit of political strategizing that’s emerging in the UK right now. Jeremy Hunt is running against Boris Johnson for leadership of the Conservative Party, and with it leadership of the country. Whoever wins will be the next prime minister.

    At the same time, diplomatic cables from the British ambassador to the US have been leaked, and they were distinctly unflattering toward Donald Trump. Trump has naturally lashed out and declared that the White House will no longer deal with the ambassador.

    This has given Hunt, the underdog in the PM race, an opening. He’s hoping to win votes by being anti-Trump:

    Will this work? Is Trump sufficiently hated in Britain that going after him can power Hunt to victory? Can Hunt hang Donald Trump around Boris Johnson’s neck? Stay tuned!

  • How Is Greece Doing These Days?

    Greece used to be in the news a lot. There were riots in the streets; it was an economic basket case; and the far-left Syriza party took over in 2015. But it’s been pretty quiet on the Greece front lately, and over the weekend the center-right New Democracy party won 40 percent of the vote in the latest elections and will form a new government.

    So how has Greece been doing under the austerity regime forced on it by Germany and the rest of the EU? Here’s the answer:

    Things are improving but still pretty grim. GDP is finally rising a bit, but still hasn’t reached even its 2003 level, let along surpassed it. Wages have stopped falling, but have been dead flat for the past five years. And although unemployment is down considerably from its peak, it’s still at around 19 percent. Overall, it looks like Greece is finally digging itself out from its hole, but it’s going to be a very long, very grinding road back to actual health.

    In other words, just what everyone predicted.

  • Lunchtime Photo

    Friday was catblogging day, which means we missed out on fireworks blogging. But it’s never too late for fireworks, so let’s do it today.

    This year I headed over to the pedestrian bridge that crosses the 405 and took pictures of our fireworks going off above the freeway. This required me to climb up on a thin concrete barrier and then hoist the camera—already mounted on a tripod—over the top of a chain link fence. Then I had to hang on by my fingertips while operating the camera. I was pretty sore by the time the show was over, but you know me: any sacrifice for my art.

    Anyway, this year I essayed a more ambitious Photoshop collage than usual. It’s a little sloppy in places, but the truth is that after taking a few different stabs at this I got sick of the whole thing. I guess I won’t sacrifice anything for my art after all. But I learned enough that maybe next year I can do a really good one.

    July 4, 2019 — Irvine, California